Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe gubernatorial race due to consistent leads in recent polling. Multiple surveys from late August and early September, including Quaest, IFP, and Real Time Big Data, place him at 40-45% in stimulated first-round scenarios against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 28-37%, with all other registered candidates below 10%. Mitidieri's advantage stems from his established voter base in key regions and favorable second-round simulations showing double-digit margins over his main rival. The first-round vote on October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25, reinforces trader consensus on his frontrunner status, as no major campaign developments have altered the established polling patterns in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,683 Vol.
$19,683 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,683 Vol.
$19,683 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
$15,588 Vol.
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,715 Vol.
10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$637 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$618 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$682 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe gubernatorial race due to consistent leads in recent polling. Multiple surveys from late August and early September, including Quaest, IFP, and Real Time Big Data, place him at 40-45% in stimulated first-round scenarios against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 28-37%, with all other registered candidates below 10%. Mitidieri's advantage stems from his established voter base in key regions and favorable second-round simulations showing double-digit margins over his main rival. The first-round vote on October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25, reinforces trader consensus on his frontrunner status, as no major campaign developments have altered the established polling patterns in the past month.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$19,683End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe gubernatorial race due to consistent leads in recent polling. Multiple surveys from late August and early September, including Quaest, IFP, and Real Time Big Data, place him at 40-45% in stimulated first-round scenarios against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 28-37%, with all other registered candidates below 10%. Mitidieri's advantage stems from his established voter base in key regions and favorable second-round simulations showing double-digit margins over his main rival. The first-round vote on October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25, reinforces trader consensus on his frontrunner status, as no major campaign developments have altered the established polling patterns in the past month.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,683End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking reelection, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe gubernatorial race due to consistent leads in recent polling. Multiple surveys from late August and early September, including Quaest, IFP, and Real Time Big Data, place him at 40-45% in stimulated first-round scenarios against Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 28-37%, with all other registered candidates below 10%. Mitidieri's advantage stems from his established voter base in key regions and favorable second-round simulations showing double-digit margins over his main rival. The first-round vote on October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25, reinforces trader consensus on his frontrunner status, as no major campaign developments have altered the established polling patterns in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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