Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the former Mato Grosso governor who stepped down in March to run, holds the strongest position for first place due to sustained polling leads in consolidated first- and second-choice scenarios, often exceeding 45% while rivals remain below 30%. Recent August and early September surveys from Paraná Pesquisas, Real Time Big Data, MT Dados, and Quaest confirm his edge over Janaina Riva (MDB) and a fragmented field including José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Carlos Fávaro (PSD), reflecting his name recognition, business ties to agriculture and mining, and broad voter familiarity. An August Federal Police operation examining alleged state contract irregularities has not altered the trajectory in available data, with undecided voters still high ahead of the October 4 vote for the two Senate seats. Traders price this outcome at 67.5% as the clearest path to topping the ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMauro Mendes 68%
Janaina Riva 19.9%
Jose Medeiros 2.7%
Galvan 2.0%
$15,958 Vol.
$15,958 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Mauro Mendes
68%
Janaina Riva
20%
Jose Medeiros
3%
Galvan
2%
Fávaro
2%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
1%
Margareth Buzetti
1%
Beny Godoy
1%
Coronel Darwin
<1%
Pedro Taques
<1%
Mauro Mendes 68%
Janaina Riva 19.9%
Jose Medeiros 2.7%
Galvan 2.0%
$15,958 Vol.
$15,958 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Mauro Mendes
$13,671 Vol.
68%
Janaina Riva
$454 Vol.
20%
Jose Medeiros
$197 Vol.
3%
Galvan
$290 Vol.
2%
Fávaro
$472 Vol.
2%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
$209 Vol.
1%
Margareth Buzetti
$173 Vol.
1%
Beny Godoy
$167 Vol.
1%
Coronel Darwin
$188 Vol.
<1%
Pedro Taques
$138 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the former Mato Grosso governor who stepped down in March to run, holds the strongest position for first place due to sustained polling leads in consolidated first- and second-choice scenarios, often exceeding 45% while rivals remain below 30%. Recent August and early September surveys from Paraná Pesquisas, Real Time Big Data, MT Dados, and Quaest confirm his edge over Janaina Riva (MDB) and a fragmented field including José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Carlos Fávaro (PSD), reflecting his name recognition, business ties to agriculture and mining, and broad voter familiarity. An August Federal Police operation examining alleged state contract irregularities has not altered the trajectory in available data, with undecided voters still high ahead of the October 4 vote for the two Senate seats. Traders price this outcome at 67.5% as the clearest path to topping the ballot.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$15,958End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the former Mato Grosso governor who stepped down in March to run, holds the strongest position for first place due to sustained polling leads in consolidated first- and second-choice scenarios, often exceeding 45% while rivals remain below 30%. Recent August and early September surveys from Paraná Pesquisas, Real Time Big Data, MT Dados, and Quaest confirm his edge over Janaina Riva (MDB) and a fragmented field including José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Carlos Fávaro (PSD), reflecting his name recognition, business ties to agriculture and mining, and broad voter familiarity. An August Federal Police operation examining alleged state contract irregularities has not altered the trajectory in available data, with undecided voters still high ahead of the October 4 vote for the two Senate seats. Traders price this outcome at 67.5% as the clearest path to topping the ballot.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,958End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the former Mato Grosso governor who stepped down in March to run, holds the strongest position for first place due to sustained polling leads in consolidated first- and second-choice scenarios, often exceeding 45% while rivals remain below 30%. Recent August and early September surveys from Paraná Pesquisas, Real Time Big Data, MT Dados, and Quaest confirm his edge over Janaina Riva (MDB) and a fragmented field including José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Carlos Fávaro (PSD), reflecting his name recognition, business ties to agriculture and mining, and broad voter familiarity. An August Federal Police operation examining alleged state contract irregularities has not altered the trajectory in available data, with undecided voters still high ahead of the October 4 vote for the two Senate seats. Traders price this outcome at 67.5% as the clearest path to topping the ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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