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icon for Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place

Rayssa Furlan 81%

Randolfe 7.2%

Lucas Barreto 4.6%

Alliny Serrão <1%

Polymarket

$32,902 Vol.

Rayssa Furlan 81%

Randolfe 7.2%

Lucas Barreto 4.6%

Alliny Serrão <1%

Polymarket

$32,902 Vol.

icon for Rayssa Furlan

Rayssa Furlan

$24,825 Vol.

81%

icon for Randolfe

Randolfe

$1,408 Vol.

7%

icon for Lucas Barreto

Lucas Barreto

$1,386 Vol.

5%

icon for Alliny Serrão

Alliny Serrão

$1,207 Vol.

1%

icon for Acácio Favacho

Acácio Favacho

$879 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helio Silva

Helio Silva

$547 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juíza Jô

Juíza Jô

$952 Vol.

<1%

icon for Professor Uzian Pinto

Professor Uzian Pinto

$947 Vol.

<1%

icon for Capi

Capi

$751 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rayssa Furlan (PODE) holds an 81% implied probability of finishing first in the October 4, 2026, Amapá Senate election, reflecting her consistent lead in multiple polls conducted through late August. Recent surveys show her receiving 56% of mentions in a multi-candidate scenario, well ahead of incumbents Lucas Barreto (PSD) and Randolfe Rodrigues (PT). Her positioning stems from a July PSD convention alliance pairing her with Barreto on a majoritarian slate, prior strong name recognition from a 2022 Senate bid that garnered over 174,000 votes, and her role as state PODE president with ties to the gubernatorial ticket. Other registered candidates, including Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho, trail significantly in voter intention data, while the two-seat structure and upcoming debates through September remain key variables before voting.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,902
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rayssa Furlan (PODE) holds an 81% implied probability of finishing first in the October 4, 2026, Amapá Senate election, reflecting her consistent lead in multiple polls conducted through late August. Recent surveys show her receiving 56% of mentions in a multi-candidate scenario, well ahead of incumbents Lucas Barreto (PSD) and Randolfe Rodrigues (PT). Her positioning stems from a July PSD convention alliance pairing her with Barreto on a majoritarian slate, prior strong name recognition from a 2022 Senate bid that garnered over 174,000 votes, and her role as state PODE president with ties to the gubernatorial ticket. Other registered candidates, including Alliny Serrão and Acácio Favacho, trail significantly in voter intention data, while the two-seat structure and upcoming debates through September remain key variables before voting.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amapá is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,902
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rayssa Furlan" at 81%, followed by "Randolfe" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $32.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Rayssa Furlan" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Randolfe" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Amapá Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.