Recent late-August polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Paraná Pesquisas show Renato Casagrande (PSB) holding a clear lead for one Espírito Santo Senate seat, while a fragmented group contends for second place ahead of the October 4 election. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD) and Rose de Freitas (MDB) register the strongest consolidated support in most surveys, followed closely by Fabiano Contarato (PT), Maguinha Malta (PL), and lower-polling names including Evair de Melo and Marcos do Val. High undecided shares (often 15% or more), name-recognition gaps, and rejection levels for some contenders sustain the technical tie. Voter choice of two candidates per ballot and shifting campaign visibility in the final weeks could still reorder the field behind Casagrande.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSergio Meneguelli 38%
Rose de Freitas 35.7%
Fabiano Contarato 16.8%
Maguinha Malta 10.9%
$36,754 Vol.
$36,754 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
38%
Rose de Freitas
36%
Fabiano Contarato
17%
Maguinha Malta
11%
Renato Casagrande
1%
Marcos do Val
<1%
Evair de Melo
<1%
Callegari
<1%
Leonardo Monjardim
<1%
Rodney Miranda
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli 38%
Rose de Freitas 35.7%
Fabiano Contarato 16.8%
Maguinha Malta 10.9%
$36,754 Vol.
$36,754 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
$20,738 Vol.
38%
Rose de Freitas
$4,283 Vol.
36%
Fabiano Contarato
$6,540 Vol.
17%
Maguinha Malta
$979 Vol.
11%
Renato Casagrande
$507 Vol.
1%
Marcos do Val
$527 Vol.
<1%
Evair de Melo
$1,020 Vol.
<1%
Callegari
$728 Vol.
<1%
Leonardo Monjardim
$596 Vol.
<1%
Rodney Miranda
$414 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$422 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent late-August polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Paraná Pesquisas show Renato Casagrande (PSB) holding a clear lead for one Espírito Santo Senate seat, while a fragmented group contends for second place ahead of the October 4 election. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD) and Rose de Freitas (MDB) register the strongest consolidated support in most surveys, followed closely by Fabiano Contarato (PT), Maguinha Malta (PL), and lower-polling names including Evair de Melo and Marcos do Val. High undecided shares (often 15% or more), name-recognition gaps, and rejection levels for some contenders sustain the technical tie. Voter choice of two candidates per ballot and shifting campaign visibility in the final weeks could still reorder the field behind Casagrande.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$36,754End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent late-August polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Paraná Pesquisas show Renato Casagrande (PSB) holding a clear lead for one Espírito Santo Senate seat, while a fragmented group contends for second place ahead of the October 4 election. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD) and Rose de Freitas (MDB) register the strongest consolidated support in most surveys, followed closely by Fabiano Contarato (PT), Maguinha Malta (PL), and lower-polling names including Evair de Melo and Marcos do Val. High undecided shares (often 15% or more), name-recognition gaps, and rejection levels for some contenders sustain the technical tie. Voter choice of two candidates per ballot and shifting campaign visibility in the final weeks could still reorder the field behind Casagrande.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$36,754End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent late-August polls from Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Paraná Pesquisas show Renato Casagrande (PSB) holding a clear lead for one Espírito Santo Senate seat, while a fragmented group contends for second place ahead of the October 4 election. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD) and Rose de Freitas (MDB) register the strongest consolidated support in most surveys, followed closely by Fabiano Contarato (PT), Maguinha Malta (PL), and lower-polling names including Evair de Melo and Marcos do Val. High undecided shares (often 15% or more), name-recognition gaps, and rejection levels for some contenders sustain the technical tie. Voter choice of two candidates per ballot and shifting campaign visibility in the final weeks could still reorder the field behind Casagrande.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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