Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo Senate polling, consistently registering 28-37% support in recent surveys from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data, well ahead of competitors such as Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Fabiano Contarato. The former three-term governor stepped down in April 2026 to pursue one of the two seats up for election on October 4, benefiting from high name recognition and a broad party coalition. Traders price him at 95.6% to finish first, reflecting this sustained advantage in voter intention data. Late-campaign developments, including shifts in turnout among undecided voters or stronger showings by second-tier candidates, remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenato Casagrande 95.6%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
Callegari <1%
Rodney Miranda <1%
$12,792 Vol.
$12,792 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
96%
Leonardo Monjardim
1%
Callegari
1%
Rodney Miranda
<1%
Maguinha Malta
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Fabiano Contarato
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
<1%
Marcos do Val
<1%
Evair de Melo
<1%
Rose de Freitas
<1%
Renato Casagrande 95.6%
Leonardo Monjardim <1%
Callegari <1%
Rodney Miranda <1%
$12,792 Vol.
$12,792 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
$5,875 Vol.
96%
Leonardo Monjardim
$824 Vol.
1%
Callegari
$799 Vol.
1%
Rodney Miranda
$705 Vol.
<1%
Maguinha Malta
$723 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$428 Vol.
<1%
Fabiano Contarato
$732 Vol.
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli
$731 Vol.
<1%
Marcos do Val
$719 Vol.
<1%
Evair de Melo
$669 Vol.
<1%
Rose de Freitas
$586 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo Senate polling, consistently registering 28-37% support in recent surveys from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data, well ahead of competitors such as Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Fabiano Contarato. The former three-term governor stepped down in April 2026 to pursue one of the two seats up for election on October 4, benefiting from high name recognition and a broad party coalition. Traders price him at 95.6% to finish first, reflecting this sustained advantage in voter intention data. Late-campaign developments, including shifts in turnout among undecided voters or stronger showings by second-tier candidates, remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$12,792End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo Senate polling, consistently registering 28-37% support in recent surveys from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data, well ahead of competitors such as Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Fabiano Contarato. The former three-term governor stepped down in April 2026 to pursue one of the two seats up for election on October 4, benefiting from high name recognition and a broad party coalition. Traders price him at 95.6% to finish first, reflecting this sustained advantage in voter intention data. Late-campaign developments, including shifts in turnout among undecided voters or stronger showings by second-tier candidates, remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before ballots close.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,792End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renato Casagrande holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo Senate polling, consistently registering 28-37% support in recent surveys from institutes including Quaest and Real Time Big Data, well ahead of competitors such as Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Fabiano Contarato. The former three-term governor stepped down in April 2026 to pursue one of the two seats up for election on October 4, benefiting from high name recognition and a broad party coalition. Traders price him at 95.6% to finish first, reflecting this sustained advantage in voter intention data. Late-campaign developments, including shifts in turnout among undecided voters or stronger showings by second-tier candidates, remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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