Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for second place in Tocantins's Senate race, where voters select two candidates on October 4 in a single-round plurality contest for eight-year terms. Recent August polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) consistently leading with 14–35 percent, while Guimarães, Carlos Gaguim (União), and Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos) compete closely behind amid 30–86 percent undecided or blank responses. The fragmented field of 13 registered candidates, including Vanderlei Luxemburgo and Eli Borges, sustains volatility, with Guimarães's established MDB base and federal deputy record positioning him as the primary challenger for the second seat. Late-campaign shifts in voter awareness or coalition alignments could alter the ordering among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Guimarães 55%
Gaguim 32.9%
Eduardo Gomes 6.1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 6%
$25,559 Vol.
$25,559 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
55%
Gaguim
33%
Eduardo Gomes
6%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
6%
Paulo Mourão
3%
Ronaldo Dimas
2%
Eli Borges
1%
Nilton Santos
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Alexandre Guimarães 55%
Gaguim 32.9%
Eduardo Gomes 6.1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 6%
$25,559 Vol.
$25,559 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
$13,761 Vol.
55%
Gaguim
$2,837 Vol.
33%
Eduardo Gomes
$1,282 Vol.
6%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$386 Vol.
6%
Paulo Mourão
$4,410 Vol.
3%
Ronaldo Dimas
$342 Vol.
2%
Eli Borges
$489 Vol.
1%
Nilton Santos
$348 Vol.
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$347 Vol.
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$301 Vol.
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$364 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$418 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$274 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for second place in Tocantins's Senate race, where voters select two candidates on October 4 in a single-round plurality contest for eight-year terms. Recent August polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) consistently leading with 14–35 percent, while Guimarães, Carlos Gaguim (União), and Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos) compete closely behind amid 30–86 percent undecided or blank responses. The fragmented field of 13 registered candidates, including Vanderlei Luxemburgo and Eli Borges, sustains volatility, with Guimarães's established MDB base and federal deputy record positioning him as the primary challenger for the second seat. Late-campaign shifts in voter awareness or coalition alignments could alter the ordering among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$25,559End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for second place in Tocantins's Senate race, where voters select two candidates on October 4 in a single-round plurality contest for eight-year terms. Recent August polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) consistently leading with 14–35 percent, while Guimarães, Carlos Gaguim (União), and Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos) compete closely behind amid 30–86 percent undecided or blank responses. The fragmented field of 13 registered candidates, including Vanderlei Luxemburgo and Eli Borges, sustains volatility, with Guimarães's established MDB base and federal deputy record positioning him as the primary challenger for the second seat. Late-campaign shifts in voter awareness or coalition alignments could alter the ordering among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,559End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) holds a narrow edge in trader consensus for second place in Tocantins's Senate race, where voters select two candidates on October 4 in a single-round plurality contest for eight-year terms. Recent August polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data, Quaest, and Paraná Pesquisas shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) consistently leading with 14–35 percent, while Guimarães, Carlos Gaguim (União), and Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos) compete closely behind amid 30–86 percent undecided or blank responses. The fragmented field of 13 registered candidates, including Vanderlei Luxemburgo and Eli Borges, sustains volatility, with Guimarães's established MDB base and federal deputy record positioning him as the primary challenger for the second seat. Late-campaign shifts in voter awareness or coalition alignments could alter the ordering among the top contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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