Recent polling from institutes like Quaest and Genial/Quaest shows a tight contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) in a technical three-way tie near the top, each in the low-to-mid teens amid 20%+ undecided and blank/null responses. Derrite draws strength from his profile as a Tarcísio de Freitas ally and former security secretary, while Tebet and Silva benefit from their roles in the Haddad gubernatorial ticket and name recognition. High fragmentation, the dual-vote system, and limited late-campaign movement keep first-place probabilities compressed, with traders assigning Derrite the clearest edge but leaving room for shifts from turnout patterns or last-minute endorsements before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuilherme Derrite 43%
Simone Tebet 25.8%
Marina Silva 15%
André do Prado 3.9%
$38,033 Vol.
$38,033 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
43%
Simone Tebet
26%
Marina Silva
15%
André do Prado
4%
Salles
2%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 43%
Simone Tebet 25.8%
Marina Silva 15%
André do Prado 3.9%
$38,033 Vol.
$38,033 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$22,490 Vol.
43%
Simone Tebet
$1,932 Vol.
26%
Marina Silva
$4,494 Vol.
15%
André do Prado
$2,379 Vol.
4%
Salles
$1,951 Vol.
2%
Soninha Francine
$474 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$383 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$733 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$396 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$552 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$419 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$613 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$737 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$480 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes like Quaest and Genial/Quaest shows a tight contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) in a technical three-way tie near the top, each in the low-to-mid teens amid 20%+ undecided and blank/null responses. Derrite draws strength from his profile as a Tarcísio de Freitas ally and former security secretary, while Tebet and Silva benefit from their roles in the Haddad gubernatorial ticket and name recognition. High fragmentation, the dual-vote system, and limited late-campaign movement keep first-place probabilities compressed, with traders assigning Derrite the clearest edge but leaving room for shifts from turnout patterns or last-minute endorsements before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$38,033End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes like Quaest and Genial/Quaest shows a tight contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) in a technical three-way tie near the top, each in the low-to-mid teens amid 20%+ undecided and blank/null responses. Derrite draws strength from his profile as a Tarcísio de Freitas ally and former security secretary, while Tebet and Silva benefit from their roles in the Haddad gubernatorial ticket and name recognition. High fragmentation, the dual-vote system, and limited late-campaign movement keep first-place probabilities compressed, with traders assigning Derrite the clearest edge but leaving room for shifts from turnout patterns or last-minute endorsements before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$38,033End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes like Quaest and Genial/Quaest shows a tight contest for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) in a technical three-way tie near the top, each in the low-to-mid teens amid 20%+ undecided and blank/null responses. Derrite draws strength from his profile as a Tarcísio de Freitas ally and former security secretary, while Tebet and Silva benefit from their roles in the Haddad gubernatorial ticket and name recognition. High fragmentation, the dual-vote system, and limited late-campaign movement keep first-place probabilities compressed, with traders assigning Derrite the clearest edge but leaving room for shifts from turnout patterns or last-minute endorsements before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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