Traders price Alexandre Curi highest for second place in Paraná’s Senate race because recent polls show him edging or tying the fragmented right-wing field behind likely leader Álvaro Dias, while Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Deltan Dallagnol remain within margins of error. Vote splitting among conservative candidates—Republicanos, PL, Novo, and PSD—has kept the contest tight, with Gleisi consolidating left-leaning support. Confirmed candidacies, party coalitions, and state-level polling averages through late August underscore the uncertainty, as no single contender has built decisive momentum. Upcoming debates, endorsements from gubernatorial frontrunners, and final campaign spending could shift second-place probabilities before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Curi 41%
Filipe Barros 23%
Gleisi 13.9%
Deltan Dallagnol 13%
$31,445 Vol.
$31,445 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
41%
Filipe Barros
23%
Gleisi
14%
Deltan Dallagnol
13%
Cristina Reis Graeml
4%
Dr. Rosinha
<1%
Joaquim do MLB
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Marcelo Marcelino
<1%
Alexandre Curi 41%
Filipe Barros 23%
Gleisi 13.9%
Deltan Dallagnol 13%
$31,445 Vol.
$31,445 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
$4,834 Vol.
41%
Filipe Barros
$10,824 Vol.
23%
Gleisi
$4,873 Vol.
14%
Deltan Dallagnol
$6,941 Vol.
13%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$1,523 Vol.
4%
Dr. Rosinha
$574 Vol.
<1%
Joaquim do MLB
$712 Vol.
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
$560 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Marcelino
$605 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Traders price Alexandre Curi highest for second place in Paraná’s Senate race because recent polls show him edging or tying the fragmented right-wing field behind likely leader Álvaro Dias, while Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Deltan Dallagnol remain within margins of error. Vote splitting among conservative candidates—Republicanos, PL, Novo, and PSD—has kept the contest tight, with Gleisi consolidating left-leaning support. Confirmed candidacies, party coalitions, and state-level polling averages through late August underscore the uncertainty, as no single contender has built decisive momentum. Upcoming debates, endorsements from gubernatorial frontrunners, and final campaign spending could shift second-place probabilities before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$31,445End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Traders price Alexandre Curi highest for second place in Paraná’s Senate race because recent polls show him edging or tying the fragmented right-wing field behind likely leader Álvaro Dias, while Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Deltan Dallagnol remain within margins of error. Vote splitting among conservative candidates—Republicanos, PL, Novo, and PSD—has kept the contest tight, with Gleisi consolidating left-leaning support. Confirmed candidacies, party coalitions, and state-level polling averages through late August underscore the uncertainty, as no single contender has built decisive momentum. Upcoming debates, endorsements from gubernatorial frontrunners, and final campaign spending could shift second-place probabilities before the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$31,445End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders price Alexandre Curi highest for second place in Paraná’s Senate race because recent polls show him edging or tying the fragmented right-wing field behind likely leader Álvaro Dias, while Filipe Barros, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Deltan Dallagnol remain within margins of error. Vote splitting among conservative candidates—Republicanos, PL, Novo, and PSD—has kept the contest tight, with Gleisi consolidating left-leaning support. Confirmed candidacies, party coalitions, and state-level polling averages through late August underscore the uncertainty, as no single contender has built decisive momentum. Upcoming debates, endorsements from gubernatorial frontrunners, and final campaign spending could shift second-place probabilities before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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