The tight contest for second place in Paraná’s October 4 Senate election stems from a fragmented field where no single candidate has consolidated support beyond the apparent frontrunner. Recent polls from institutes including Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas show Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) edging or tying with Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), Filipe Barros (PL), and Deltan Dallagnol (Novo) in the 15–25% range for second-preference votes, while Cristina Graeml (PSD) and others trail. Right-leaning voters remain split across multiple conservative candidacies, boosting uncertainty in second-vote allocations. High undecided shares (often 20–60% depending on the survey) and Dallagnol’s pending eligibility rulings add volatility. Traders price Curi highest for second place, reflecting his organizational base and polling consistency, yet the narrow spreads indicate any late consolidation or turnout shift among the right could reorder the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Curi 35%
Filipe Barros 27%
Gleisi 22.1%
Deltan Dallagnol 15%
$28,636 Vol.
$28,636 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
35%
Filipe Barros
27%
Gleisi
22%
Deltan Dallagnol
15%
Cristina Reis Graeml
6%
Marcelo Marcelino
<1%
Dr. Rosinha
<1%
Joaquim do MLB
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
<1%
Alexandre Curi 35%
Filipe Barros 27%
Gleisi 22.1%
Deltan Dallagnol 15%
$28,636 Vol.
$28,636 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Curi
$4,188 Vol.
35%
Filipe Barros
$9,684 Vol.
27%
Gleisi
$4,539 Vol.
22%
Deltan Dallagnol
$6,587 Vol.
15%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$1,187 Vol.
6%
Marcelo Marcelino
$605 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Rosinha
$574 Vol.
<1%
Joaquim do MLB
$712 Vol.
<1%
Karen Guerreiro
$560 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for second place in Paraná’s October 4 Senate election stems from a fragmented field where no single candidate has consolidated support beyond the apparent frontrunner. Recent polls from institutes including Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas show Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) edging or tying with Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), Filipe Barros (PL), and Deltan Dallagnol (Novo) in the 15–25% range for second-preference votes, while Cristina Graeml (PSD) and others trail. Right-leaning voters remain split across multiple conservative candidacies, boosting uncertainty in second-vote allocations. High undecided shares (often 20–60% depending on the survey) and Dallagnol’s pending eligibility rulings add volatility. Traders price Curi highest for second place, reflecting his organizational base and polling consistency, yet the narrow spreads indicate any late consolidation or turnout shift among the right could reorder the outcome before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$28,636End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for second place in Paraná’s October 4 Senate election stems from a fragmented field where no single candidate has consolidated support beyond the apparent frontrunner. Recent polls from institutes including Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas show Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) edging or tying with Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), Filipe Barros (PL), and Deltan Dallagnol (Novo) in the 15–25% range for second-preference votes, while Cristina Graeml (PSD) and others trail. Right-leaning voters remain split across multiple conservative candidacies, boosting uncertainty in second-vote allocations. High undecided shares (often 20–60% depending on the survey) and Dallagnol’s pending eligibility rulings add volatility. Traders price Curi highest for second place, reflecting his organizational base and polling consistency, yet the narrow spreads indicate any late consolidation or turnout shift among the right could reorder the outcome before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,636End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for second place in Paraná’s October 4 Senate election stems from a fragmented field where no single candidate has consolidated support beyond the apparent frontrunner. Recent polls from institutes including Quaest, IRG, and Paraná Pesquisas show Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) edging or tying with Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), Filipe Barros (PL), and Deltan Dallagnol (Novo) in the 15–25% range for second-preference votes, while Cristina Graeml (PSD) and others trail. Right-leaning voters remain split across multiple conservative candidacies, boosting uncertainty in second-vote allocations. High undecided shares (often 20–60% depending on the survey) and Dallagnol’s pending eligibility rulings add volatility. Traders price Curi highest for second place, reflecting his organizational base and polling consistency, yet the narrow spreads indicate any late consolidation or turnout shift among the right could reorder the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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