Recent polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Reinaldo Azambuja leading the Senate race while Capitão Contar holds a consistent edge over Soraya Thronicke and Vander Loubet for the second seat, reflecting the PL alliance that unified center-right support after Nelsinho Trad withdrew to serve as suplente. Traders price Contar highest for second place because the two PL candidates are positioned to capture both vacancies in the single-round contest on October 4, with recent surveys placing Contar ahead of the fragmented opposition field. High undecided shares and the split between PT and PSB candidacies sustain uncertainty around the second spot, as shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum could narrow or widen the gap between Contar and challengers like Loubet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Contar 59%
Vander Loubet 25%
Soraya 13.6%
Reinaldo Azambuja 6.0%
$21,618 Vol.
$21,618 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
59%
Vander Loubet
25%
Soraya
14%
Reinaldo Azambuja
6%
Beto do Movimento
<1%
Roberto Oshiro
<1%
Valter da Comagran
<1%
Luiz Lemes
<1%
Daniel Junior
<1%
Valderi Garcia
<1%
Capitão Contar 59%
Vander Loubet 25%
Soraya 13.6%
Reinaldo Azambuja 6.0%
$21,618 Vol.
$21,618 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
$8,241 Vol.
59%
Vander Loubet
$6,486 Vol.
25%
Soraya
$2,051 Vol.
14%
Reinaldo Azambuja
$1,022 Vol.
6%
Beto do Movimento
$684 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Oshiro
$737 Vol.
<1%
Valter da Comagran
$719 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Lemes
$737 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Junior
$497 Vol.
<1%
Valderi Garcia
$444 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Reinaldo Azambuja leading the Senate race while Capitão Contar holds a consistent edge over Soraya Thronicke and Vander Loubet for the second seat, reflecting the PL alliance that unified center-right support after Nelsinho Trad withdrew to serve as suplente. Traders price Contar highest for second place because the two PL candidates are positioned to capture both vacancies in the single-round contest on October 4, with recent surveys placing Contar ahead of the fragmented opposition field. High undecided shares and the split between PT and PSB candidacies sustain uncertainty around the second spot, as shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum could narrow or widen the gap between Contar and challengers like Loubet.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$21,618End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Reinaldo Azambuja leading the Senate race while Capitão Contar holds a consistent edge over Soraya Thronicke and Vander Loubet for the second seat, reflecting the PL alliance that unified center-right support after Nelsinho Trad withdrew to serve as suplente. Traders price Contar highest for second place because the two PL candidates are positioned to capture both vacancies in the single-round contest on October 4, with recent surveys placing Contar ahead of the fragmented opposition field. High undecided shares and the split between PT and PSB candidacies sustain uncertainty around the second spot, as shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum could narrow or widen the gap between Contar and challengers like Loubet.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$21,618End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Reinaldo Azambuja leading the Senate race while Capitão Contar holds a consistent edge over Soraya Thronicke and Vander Loubet for the second seat, reflecting the PL alliance that unified center-right support after Nelsinho Trad withdrew to serve as suplente. Traders price Contar highest for second place because the two PL candidates are positioned to capture both vacancies in the single-round contest on October 4, with recent surveys placing Contar ahead of the fragmented opposition field. High undecided shares and the split between PT and PSB candidacies sustain uncertainty around the second spot, as shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum could narrow or widen the gap between Contar and challengers like Loubet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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