Recent late-August 2026 polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Renato Casagrande (PSB) leading the Espírito Santo Senate race for one of the two seats, while a technical tie persists among six or more contenders for second place amid high undecided shares and voters selecting two names. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Maguinha Malta (PL), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), and Marcos do Val (Avante) cluster within the margin of error, with no major endorsements, debates, or coalition shifts reported since the surveys. This fragmentation sustains the tight implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus, though further polling, campaign events before the October 4 first round, or shifts in second-preference voting could consolidate support and create separation among the pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSergio Meneguelli 38%
Rose de Freitas 34.7%
Fabiano Contarato 15.8%
Maguinha Malta 12.6%
$36,754 Vol.
$36,754 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
38%
Rose de Freitas
35%
Fabiano Contarato
16%
Maguinha Malta
13%
Renato Casagrande
1%
Evair de Melo
<1%
Marcos do Val
<1%
Callegari
<1%
Leonardo Monjardim
<1%
Rodney Miranda
<1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli 38%
Rose de Freitas 34.7%
Fabiano Contarato 15.8%
Maguinha Malta 12.6%
$36,754 Vol.
$36,754 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
$20,738 Vol.
38%
Rose de Freitas
$4,283 Vol.
35%
Fabiano Contarato
$6,540 Vol.
16%
Maguinha Malta
$979 Vol.
13%
Renato Casagrande
$507 Vol.
1%
Evair de Melo
$1,020 Vol.
<1%
Marcos do Val
$527 Vol.
<1%
Callegari
$728 Vol.
<1%
Leonardo Monjardim
$596 Vol.
<1%
Rodney Miranda
$414 Vol.
<1%
Professor Fabian
$422 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent late-August 2026 polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Renato Casagrande (PSB) leading the Espírito Santo Senate race for one of the two seats, while a technical tie persists among six or more contenders for second place amid high undecided shares and voters selecting two names. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Maguinha Malta (PL), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), and Marcos do Val (Avante) cluster within the margin of error, with no major endorsements, debates, or coalition shifts reported since the surveys. This fragmentation sustains the tight implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus, though further polling, campaign events before the October 4 first round, or shifts in second-preference voting could consolidate support and create separation among the pack.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$36,754End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent late-August 2026 polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Renato Casagrande (PSB) leading the Espírito Santo Senate race for one of the two seats, while a technical tie persists among six or more contenders for second place amid high undecided shares and voters selecting two names. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Maguinha Malta (PL), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), and Marcos do Val (Avante) cluster within the margin of error, with no major endorsements, debates, or coalition shifts reported since the surveys. This fragmentation sustains the tight implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus, though further polling, campaign events before the October 4 first round, or shifts in second-preference voting could consolidate support and create separation among the pack.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$36,754End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent late-August 2026 polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Renato Casagrande (PSB) leading the Espírito Santo Senate race for one of the two seats, while a technical tie persists among six or more contenders for second place amid high undecided shares and voters selecting two names. Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Maguinha Malta (PL), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), and Marcos do Val (Avante) cluster within the margin of error, with no major endorsements, debates, or coalition shifts reported since the surveys. This fragmentation sustains the tight implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus, though further polling, campaign events before the October 4 first round, or shifts in second-preference voting could consolidate support and create separation among the pack.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions