The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats up on October 4 remains highly competitive, with voters selecting two distinct candidates and no clear frontrunner emerging after Alfredo Gaspar withdrew in early August to pursue a national ticket. Recent polls, including a late-August Quaest survey, show Arthur Lira (PP), Renan Calheiros (MDB) seeking re-election, and Marina JHC (PSDB) clustered within a few points, followed by Davi Davino Filho and lower-polling names such as Dr. Wanderley. This reflects longstanding state political rivalries between established families and coalitions, combined with elevated undecided and blank/null shares that keep first-place probabilities fluid. Trader consensus prices capture this uncertainty, where modest shifts in turnout, coalition endorsements, or late campaign momentum could reorder the top finishers before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArthur Lira 32%
Renan 31%
Marina JHC 20.4%
Alexandre Fleming <1%
$19,089 Vol.
$19,089 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
32%
Renan
22%
Marina JHC
22%
Alexandre Fleming
1%
Dr. Wanderley
<1%
Mariedson
<1%
Davi Davino Filho
<1%
Arthur Lira 32%
Renan 31%
Marina JHC 20.4%
Alexandre Fleming <1%
$19,089 Vol.
$19,089 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Arthur Lira
$10,005 Vol.
32%
Renan
$6,786 Vol.
22%
Marina JHC
$595 Vol.
22%
Alexandre Fleming
$453 Vol.
1%
Dr. Wanderley
$529 Vol.
<1%
Mariedson
$408 Vol.
<1%
Davi Davino Filho
$313 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats up on October 4 remains highly competitive, with voters selecting two distinct candidates and no clear frontrunner emerging after Alfredo Gaspar withdrew in early August to pursue a national ticket. Recent polls, including a late-August Quaest survey, show Arthur Lira (PP), Renan Calheiros (MDB) seeking re-election, and Marina JHC (PSDB) clustered within a few points, followed by Davi Davino Filho and lower-polling names such as Dr. Wanderley. This reflects longstanding state political rivalries between established families and coalitions, combined with elevated undecided and blank/null shares that keep first-place probabilities fluid. Trader consensus prices capture this uncertainty, where modest shifts in turnout, coalition endorsements, or late campaign momentum could reorder the top finishers before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$19,089End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats up on October 4 remains highly competitive, with voters selecting two distinct candidates and no clear frontrunner emerging after Alfredo Gaspar withdrew in early August to pursue a national ticket. Recent polls, including a late-August Quaest survey, show Arthur Lira (PP), Renan Calheiros (MDB) seeking re-election, and Marina JHC (PSDB) clustered within a few points, followed by Davi Davino Filho and lower-polling names such as Dr. Wanderley. This reflects longstanding state political rivalries between established families and coalitions, combined with elevated undecided and blank/null shares that keep first-place probabilities fluid. Trader consensus prices capture this uncertainty, where modest shifts in turnout, coalition endorsements, or late campaign momentum could reorder the top finishers before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,089End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Alagoas Senate race for the two seats up on October 4 remains highly competitive, with voters selecting two distinct candidates and no clear frontrunner emerging after Alfredo Gaspar withdrew in early August to pursue a national ticket. Recent polls, including a late-August Quaest survey, show Arthur Lira (PP), Renan Calheiros (MDB) seeking re-election, and Marina JHC (PSDB) clustered within a few points, followed by Davi Davino Filho and lower-polling names such as Dr. Wanderley. This reflects longstanding state political rivalries between established families and coalitions, combined with elevated undecided and blank/null shares that keep first-place probabilities fluid. Trader consensus prices capture this uncertainty, where modest shifts in turnout, coalition endorsements, or late campaign momentum could reorder the top finishers before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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