Rui Costa (PT) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for first place in Bahia’s October 2026 Senate race, driven by consistently higher first-preference support than other contenders. Multiple surveys from July and August, including Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas, place him ahead with 22–33% in stimulated scenarios focused on the top vote-getter, well clear of Jaques Wagner (PT), who trails at 13–20% amid lingering effects from a June federal police operation. Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL) register single-digit to mid-teen figures in the same measures, while remaining candidates stay near or below 5%. High name recognition for the two PT figures, combined with Bahia’s established partisan patterns and the absence of major late shifts in voter preference, underpins trader consensus on the frontrunner. The two-seat contest and October timeline leave room for final-week movement, though current data shows no such reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 73%
Jaques Wagner 14.5%
João Roma 5.3%
Angelo Coronel 3.0%
$26,306 Vol.
$26,306 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
73%
Jaques Wagner
14%
João Roma
5%
Angelo Coronel
3%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 73%
Jaques Wagner 14.5%
João Roma 5.3%
Angelo Coronel 3.0%
$26,306 Vol.
$26,306 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$11,492 Vol.
73%
Jaques Wagner
$5,732 Vol.
14%
João Roma
$2,802 Vol.
5%
Angelo Coronel
$1,835 Vol.
3%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$810 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$775 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for first place in Bahia’s October 2026 Senate race, driven by consistently higher first-preference support than other contenders. Multiple surveys from July and August, including Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas, place him ahead with 22–33% in stimulated scenarios focused on the top vote-getter, well clear of Jaques Wagner (PT), who trails at 13–20% amid lingering effects from a June federal police operation. Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL) register single-digit to mid-teen figures in the same measures, while remaining candidates stay near or below 5%. High name recognition for the two PT figures, combined with Bahia’s established partisan patterns and the absence of major late shifts in voter preference, underpins trader consensus on the frontrunner. The two-seat contest and October timeline leave room for final-week movement, though current data shows no such reversal.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$26,306End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for first place in Bahia’s October 2026 Senate race, driven by consistently higher first-preference support than other contenders. Multiple surveys from July and August, including Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas, place him ahead with 22–33% in stimulated scenarios focused on the top vote-getter, well clear of Jaques Wagner (PT), who trails at 13–20% amid lingering effects from a June federal police operation. Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL) register single-digit to mid-teen figures in the same measures, while remaining candidates stay near or below 5%. High name recognition for the two PT figures, combined with Bahia’s established partisan patterns and the absence of major late shifts in voter preference, underpins trader consensus on the frontrunner. The two-seat contest and October timeline leave room for final-week movement, though current data shows no such reversal.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,306End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for first place in Bahia’s October 2026 Senate race, driven by consistently higher first-preference support than other contenders. Multiple surveys from July and August, including Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas, place him ahead with 22–33% in stimulated scenarios focused on the top vote-getter, well clear of Jaques Wagner (PT), who trails at 13–20% amid lingering effects from a June federal police operation. Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL) register single-digit to mid-teen figures in the same measures, while remaining candidates stay near or below 5%. High name recognition for the two PT figures, combined with Bahia’s established partisan patterns and the absence of major late shifts in voter preference, underpins trader consensus on the frontrunner. The two-seat contest and October timeline leave room for final-week movement, though current data shows no such reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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