Recent September 2026 polls from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show Eduardo Braga (MDB) maintaining a consistent lead for one Senate seat in Amazonas, with Capitão Alberto Neto (PL) positioned as the clearest contender for second amid fluid support for Wilson Lima (União Brasil) and Plínio Valério (PSDB). Geographic fragmentation sustains the tightness, as Neto draws stronger backing in Manaus while Braga and Lima perform better in the interior, leaving the second-vote allocation sensitive to turnout and undecided voters. Late-August and early-September surveys indicate technical ties among the secondary names in combined first-and-second preference totals, with high abstention rates above 70% in spontaneous scenarios preserving volatility until election day on October 4. Trader consensus prices reflect these polling patterns and the absence of decisive late shifts that would separate the field for the remaining seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Alberto Neto 52%
Eduardo Braga 20.3%
Wilson Lima 13.4%
Plinio Valério 3.9%
$16,284 Vol.
$16,284 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Alberto Neto
52%
Eduardo Braga
20%
Wilson Lima
13%
Plinio Valério
4%
Xuxa do Amazonas
<1%
Evandro de Oliveira
<1%
Professora Evany
<1%
Dailson Corrêa
<1%
Ismael Munduruku
<1%
Capitão Alberto Neto 52%
Eduardo Braga 20.3%
Wilson Lima 13.4%
Plinio Valério 3.9%
$16,284 Vol.
$16,284 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Alberto Neto
$6,162 Vol.
52%
Eduardo Braga
$2,874 Vol.
20%
Wilson Lima
$3,748 Vol.
13%
Plinio Valério
$610 Vol.
4%
Xuxa do Amazonas
$734 Vol.
<1%
Evandro de Oliveira
$474 Vol.
<1%
Professora Evany
$746 Vol.
<1%
Dailson Corrêa
$472 Vol.
<1%
Ismael Munduruku
$462 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent September 2026 polls from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show Eduardo Braga (MDB) maintaining a consistent lead for one Senate seat in Amazonas, with Capitão Alberto Neto (PL) positioned as the clearest contender for second amid fluid support for Wilson Lima (União Brasil) and Plínio Valério (PSDB). Geographic fragmentation sustains the tightness, as Neto draws stronger backing in Manaus while Braga and Lima perform better in the interior, leaving the second-vote allocation sensitive to turnout and undecided voters. Late-August and early-September surveys indicate technical ties among the secondary names in combined first-and-second preference totals, with high abstention rates above 70% in spontaneous scenarios preserving volatility until election day on October 4. Trader consensus prices reflect these polling patterns and the absence of decisive late shifts that would separate the field for the remaining seat.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:52 AM ET
Volume
$16,284End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent September 2026 polls from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show Eduardo Braga (MDB) maintaining a consistent lead for one Senate seat in Amazonas, with Capitão Alberto Neto (PL) positioned as the clearest contender for second amid fluid support for Wilson Lima (União Brasil) and Plínio Valério (PSDB). Geographic fragmentation sustains the tightness, as Neto draws stronger backing in Manaus while Braga and Lima perform better in the interior, leaving the second-vote allocation sensitive to turnout and undecided voters. Late-August and early-September surveys indicate technical ties among the secondary names in combined first-and-second preference totals, with high abstention rates above 70% in spontaneous scenarios preserving volatility until election day on October 4. Trader consensus prices reflect these polling patterns and the absence of decisive late shifts that would separate the field for the remaining seat.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,284End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent September 2026 polls from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest show Eduardo Braga (MDB) maintaining a consistent lead for one Senate seat in Amazonas, with Capitão Alberto Neto (PL) positioned as the clearest contender for second amid fluid support for Wilson Lima (União Brasil) and Plínio Valério (PSDB). Geographic fragmentation sustains the tightness, as Neto draws stronger backing in Manaus while Braga and Lima perform better in the interior, leaving the second-vote allocation sensitive to turnout and undecided voters. Late-August and early-September surveys indicate technical ties among the secondary names in combined first-and-second preference totals, with high abstention rates above 70% in spontaneous scenarios preserving volatility until election day on October 4. Trader consensus prices reflect these polling patterns and the absence of decisive late shifts that would separate the field for the remaining seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions