Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

icon for Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Eduardo Paes 92.0%

Douglas Ruas 7.8%

Rafa Luz <1%

Colonel Busnello <1%

Polymarket

$455,599 Vol.

Eduardo Paes 92.0%

Douglas Ruas 7.8%

Rafa Luz <1%

Colonel Busnello <1%

Polymarket

$455,599 Vol.

icon for Eduardo Paes

Eduardo Paes

$72,339 Vol.

92%

icon for Douglas Ruas

Douglas Ruas

$28,495 Vol.

8%

icon for Rafa Luz

Rafa Luz

$17,322 Vol.

1%

icon for Colonel Busnello

Colonel Busnello

$18,812 Vol.

<1%

icon for Felipe Curi

Felipe Curi

$27,062 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Pazuello

Eduardo Pazuello

$3,826 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcísio Motta

Tarcísio Motta

$17,339 Vol.

<1%

icon for Anthony Garotinho

Anthony Garotinho

$29,367 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nicola Miccione

Nicola Miccione

$5,387 Vol.

<1%

icon for Wilson Witzel

Wilson Witzel

$19,853 Vol.

<1%

icon for André Português

André Português

$3,688 Vol.

<1%

icon for Lindbergh Farias

Lindbergh Farias

$15,600 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fred Pacheco

Fred Pacheco

$142,002 Vol.

<1%

icon for André Ceciliano

André Ceciliano

$19,911 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dr. Luizinho

Dr. Luizinho

$18,566 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chico Machado

Chico Machado

$16,095 Vol.

<1%

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 91.7% implied probability. Recent polling from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest shows him at 38–42% in first-round scenarios, ahead of Douglas Ruas (PL) at 10–19% and Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) at 9–12%, with broad support from a coalition including PT-aligned parties. Paes resigned as Rio mayor in March 2026 to meet eligibility rules and benefits from high name recognition after multiple terms in office. Opponents face higher rejection rates and fragmented backing. Late developments such as scandals, shifts in evangelical or bolsonarista voter alignment, or strong second-round consolidation against him remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the October vote.

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$455,599
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 91.7% implied probability. Recent polling from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest shows him at 38–42% in first-round scenarios, ahead of Douglas Ruas (PL) at 10–19% and Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) at 9–12%, with broad support from a coalition including PT-aligned parties. Paes resigned as Rio mayor in March 2026 to meet eligibility rules and benefits from high name recognition after multiple terms in office. Opponents face higher rejection rates and fragmented backing. Late developments such as scandals, shifts in evangelical or bolsonarista voter alignment, or strong second-round consolidation against him remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before the October vote.

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$455,599
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

63%
icon for Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

52%
icon for Will Arthur Henrique win the 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election?

Will Arthur Henrique win the 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election?

94%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eduardo Paes" at 92%, followed by "Douglas Ruas" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner" has generated $455.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner" is "Eduardo Paes" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Douglas Ruas" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.