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icon for Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place

Mendonça Filho 50%

Humberto Costa 38%

Marília Arraes 5.6%

Túlio Gadêlha 4.9%

Polymarket

$29,889 Vol.

Mendonça Filho 50%

Humberto Costa 38%

Marília Arraes 5.6%

Túlio Gadêlha 4.9%

Polymarket

$29,889 Vol.

icon for Mendonça Filho

Mendonça Filho

$7,807 Vol.

50%

icon for Humberto Costa

Humberto Costa

$9,844 Vol.

38%

icon for Marília Arraes

Marília Arraes

$4,852 Vol.

6%

icon for Túlio Gadêlha

Túlio Gadêlha

$1,430 Vol.

5%

icon for Eduardo da Fonte

Eduardo da Fonte

$1,511 Vol.

2%

icon for Pastor Gilvan Costa

Pastor Gilvan Costa

$769 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samuel Timoteo

Samuel Timoteo

$829 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mariano Macedo

Mariano Macedo

$802 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Sant'Anna

Carlos Sant'Anna

$494 Vol.

<1%

icon for Paulo Rubem Santiago

Paulo Rubem Santiago

$490 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gorett Bitu

Gorett Bitu

$629 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mailson da Silva Neto

Mailson da Silva Neto

$433 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Pernambuco's Senate race shows Marília Arraes (PDT) maintaining a clear lead for first place, while Mendonça Filho (PL) and incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) remain locked in a tight contest for second, with the former holding a narrow edge in the latest Real Time Big Data survey at 20% to 19%. Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) trail further back. High undecided and blank/null shares, exceeding 25% in multiple surveys, sustain volatility ahead of the October 4 vote. Mendonça's recent gains align with bolsonarista endorsements and right-leaning consolidation, while Costa benefits from PT organizational support and the Arraes alliance. These dynamics keep second-place probabilities closely matched, with final voter turnout and late shifts among undecideds likely to determine separation.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,889
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Pernambuco's Senate race shows Marília Arraes (PDT) maintaining a clear lead for first place, while Mendonça Filho (PL) and incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) remain locked in a tight contest for second, with the former holding a narrow edge in the latest Real Time Big Data survey at 20% to 19%. Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) trail further back. High undecided and blank/null shares, exceeding 25% in multiple surveys, sustain volatility ahead of the October 4 vote. Mendonça's recent gains align with bolsonarista endorsements and right-leaning consolidation, while Costa benefits from PT organizational support and the Arraes alliance. These dynamics keep second-place probabilities closely matched, with final voter turnout and late shifts among undecideds likely to determine separation.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,889
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mendonça Filho" at 50%, followed by "Humberto Costa" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place" has generated $29.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Mendonça Filho" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Humberto Costa" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pernambuco Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.