Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds a commanding lead in Pará's October 4, 2026, Senate race for one of two seats, driving the elevated market price on his first-place finish. As term-limited former governor with strong name recognition and MDB organizational support, recent August polls from Quaest, Atlas, and others place him at 21–28% combined vote share and up to 38% as first preference, well ahead of the field. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) and Zequinha Marinho (PODE) trail in the low-to-mid teens for the second spot, with the remaining dozen candidates—including Celso Sabino and Chicão—registering single digits or less amid high undecided rates around 23%. No major shifts have emerged since candidate registrations closed, leaving trader pricing aligned with consistent polling trends favoring Helder for the top position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHelder 71%
Delegado Éder Mauro 20.7%
Zequinha Marinho 6.0%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.2%
$15,686 Vol.
$15,686 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
71%
Delegado Éder Mauro
21%
Zequinha Marinho
6%
Edlaine Rodrigues
3%
Conti
1%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Celso Sabino
1%
Chicão
1%
Gizelle Freitas
1%
Fernanda Lopes
1%
Willem da Silva
<1%
Helder 71%
Delegado Éder Mauro 20.7%
Zequinha Marinho 6.0%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.2%
$15,686 Vol.
$15,686 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
$10,647 Vol.
71%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$575 Vol.
21%
Zequinha Marinho
$514 Vol.
6%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$545 Vol.
3%
Conti
$496 Vol.
1%
Breno Guimarães
$474 Vol.
1%
Celso Sabino
$444 Vol.
1%
Chicão
$433 Vol.
1%
Gizelle Freitas
$507 Vol.
1%
Fernanda Lopes
$671 Vol.
1%
Willem da Silva
$381 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds a commanding lead in Pará's October 4, 2026, Senate race for one of two seats, driving the elevated market price on his first-place finish. As term-limited former governor with strong name recognition and MDB organizational support, recent August polls from Quaest, Atlas, and others place him at 21–28% combined vote share and up to 38% as first preference, well ahead of the field. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) and Zequinha Marinho (PODE) trail in the low-to-mid teens for the second spot, with the remaining dozen candidates—including Celso Sabino and Chicão—registering single digits or less amid high undecided rates around 23%. No major shifts have emerged since candidate registrations closed, leaving trader pricing aligned with consistent polling trends favoring Helder for the top position.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$15,686End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds a commanding lead in Pará's October 4, 2026, Senate race for one of two seats, driving the elevated market price on his first-place finish. As term-limited former governor with strong name recognition and MDB organizational support, recent August polls from Quaest, Atlas, and others place him at 21–28% combined vote share and up to 38% as first preference, well ahead of the field. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) and Zequinha Marinho (PODE) trail in the low-to-mid teens for the second spot, with the remaining dozen candidates—including Celso Sabino and Chicão—registering single digits or less amid high undecided rates around 23%. No major shifts have emerged since candidate registrations closed, leaving trader pricing aligned with consistent polling trends favoring Helder for the top position.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,686End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds a commanding lead in Pará's October 4, 2026, Senate race for one of two seats, driving the elevated market price on his first-place finish. As term-limited former governor with strong name recognition and MDB organizational support, recent August polls from Quaest, Atlas, and others place him at 21–28% combined vote share and up to 38% as first preference, well ahead of the field. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) and Zequinha Marinho (PODE) trail in the low-to-mid teens for the second spot, with the remaining dozen candidates—including Celso Sabino and Chicão—registering single digits or less amid high undecided rates around 23%. No major shifts have emerged since candidate registrations closed, leaving trader pricing aligned with consistent polling trends favoring Helder for the top position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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