**Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a strong lead in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for first place, backed by consistent polling advantages and his profile as former governor (2015–2022) with deep roots in the state's agribusiness sector.** Recent surveys from late August, including Quaest, showed him at 22% overall (higher on first-preference votes), ahead of party ally Capitão Contar at 15% and others like Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT) in single digits. The center-right bloc consolidated around Azambuja after Nelsinho Trad stepped aside to serve as his alternate, while the PL ticket pairs him with Contar to target two seats in the October 4 first-round vote. Fragmented opposition and Azambuja's higher name recognition have kept other registered candidates at low single-digit or sub-1% levels in surveys, supporting the market's implied probabilities for the top spot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReinaldo Azambuja 84%
Capitão Contar 14%
Luiz Lemes 1.1%
Valderi Garcia <1%
$17,290 Vol.
$17,290 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
84%
Capitão Contar
14%
Luiz Lemes
1%
Valderi Garcia
1%
Valter da Comagran
1%
Roberto Oshiro
<1%
Daniel Junior
<1%
Soraya
<1%
Vander Loubet
<1%
Beto do Movimento
<1%
Reinaldo Azambuja 84%
Capitão Contar 14%
Luiz Lemes 1.1%
Valderi Garcia <1%
$17,290 Vol.
$17,290 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$10,211 Vol.
84%
Capitão Contar
$2,487 Vol.
14%
Luiz Lemes
$591 Vol.
1%
Valderi Garcia
$570 Vol.
1%
Valter da Comagran
$638 Vol.
1%
Roberto Oshiro
$634 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Junior
$463 Vol.
<1%
Soraya
$571 Vol.
<1%
Vander Loubet
$550 Vol.
<1%
Beto do Movimento
$576 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a strong lead in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for first place, backed by consistent polling advantages and his profile as former governor (2015–2022) with deep roots in the state's agribusiness sector.** Recent surveys from late August, including Quaest, showed him at 22% overall (higher on first-preference votes), ahead of party ally Capitão Contar at 15% and others like Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT) in single digits. The center-right bloc consolidated around Azambuja after Nelsinho Trad stepped aside to serve as his alternate, while the PL ticket pairs him with Contar to target two seats in the October 4 first-round vote. Fragmented opposition and Azambuja's higher name recognition have kept other registered candidates at low single-digit or sub-1% levels in surveys, supporting the market's implied probabilities for the top spot.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$17,290End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a strong lead in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for first place, backed by consistent polling advantages and his profile as former governor (2015–2022) with deep roots in the state's agribusiness sector.** Recent surveys from late August, including Quaest, showed him at 22% overall (higher on first-preference votes), ahead of party ally Capitão Contar at 15% and others like Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT) in single digits. The center-right bloc consolidated around Azambuja after Nelsinho Trad stepped aside to serve as his alternate, while the PL ticket pairs him with Contar to target two seats in the October 4 first-round vote. Fragmented opposition and Azambuja's higher name recognition have kept other registered candidates at low single-digit or sub-1% levels in surveys, supporting the market's implied probabilities for the top spot.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,290End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) holds a strong lead in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for first place, backed by consistent polling advantages and his profile as former governor (2015–2022) with deep roots in the state's agribusiness sector.** Recent surveys from late August, including Quaest, showed him at 22% overall (higher on first-preference votes), ahead of party ally Capitão Contar at 15% and others like Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT) in single digits. The center-right bloc consolidated around Azambuja after Nelsinho Trad stepped aside to serve as his alternate, while the PL ticket pairs him with Contar to target two seats in the October 4 first-round vote. Fragmented opposition and Azambuja's higher name recognition have kept other registered candidates at low single-digit or sub-1% levels in surveys, supporting the market's implied probabilities for the top spot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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