Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in the October 2026 Federal District Senate contest, reflecting her consistent lead in late-August polling from Quaest, Igape, and Datafolha, where she captured 25–27% as the top first-vote choice amid 13 registered candidates. Her visibility as former first lady, PL party infrastructure, and substantial electoral fund allocation exceeding R$3 million have reinforced this edge since her official confirmation in early August. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails in the mid-teens across surveys, while Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) register single-digit support, aligning with their lower implied probabilities. The two-seat plurality system and roughly one month until voting keep focus on name recognition and turnout dynamics among the 2.56 million eligible voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichelle Bolsonaro 79%
Leila do Vôlei 16%
Erika Kokay 4.8%
Bia Kicis 1.8%
$26,604 Vol.
$26,604 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
79%
Leila do Vôlei
16%
Erika Kokay
5%
Bia Kicis
2%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Marley
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 79%
Leila do Vôlei 16%
Erika Kokay 4.8%
Bia Kicis 1.8%
$26,604 Vol.
$26,604 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$11,073 Vol.
79%
Leila do Vôlei
$3,652 Vol.
16%
Erika Kokay
$2,021 Vol.
5%
Bia Kicis
$4,333 Vol.
2%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$794 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$801 Vol.
<1%
David Horn
$505 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$795 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$674 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$556 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$381 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$489 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$530 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in the October 2026 Federal District Senate contest, reflecting her consistent lead in late-August polling from Quaest, Igape, and Datafolha, where she captured 25–27% as the top first-vote choice amid 13 registered candidates. Her visibility as former first lady, PL party infrastructure, and substantial electoral fund allocation exceeding R$3 million have reinforced this edge since her official confirmation in early August. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails in the mid-teens across surveys, while Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) register single-digit support, aligning with their lower implied probabilities. The two-seat plurality system and roughly one month until voting keep focus on name recognition and turnout dynamics among the 2.56 million eligible voters.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$26,604End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in the October 2026 Federal District Senate contest, reflecting her consistent lead in late-August polling from Quaest, Igape, and Datafolha, where she captured 25–27% as the top first-vote choice amid 13 registered candidates. Her visibility as former first lady, PL party infrastructure, and substantial electoral fund allocation exceeding R$3 million have reinforced this edge since her official confirmation in early August. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails in the mid-teens across surveys, while Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) register single-digit support, aligning with their lower implied probabilities. The two-seat plurality system and roughly one month until voting keep focus on name recognition and turnout dynamics among the 2.56 million eligible voters.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,604End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in the October 2026 Federal District Senate contest, reflecting her consistent lead in late-August polling from Quaest, Igape, and Datafolha, where she captured 25–27% as the top first-vote choice amid 13 registered candidates. Her visibility as former first lady, PL party infrastructure, and substantial electoral fund allocation exceeding R$3 million have reinforced this edge since her official confirmation in early August. Incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails in the mid-teens across surveys, while Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) register single-digit support, aligning with their lower implied probabilities. The two-seat plurality system and roughly one month until voting keep focus on name recognition and turnout dynamics among the 2.56 million eligible voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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