Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection, with consistent polling showing him ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15 points or more in first-round scenarios and often exceeding 50% of valid votes. Withdrawals by potential center-right contenders such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra have narrowed the field and consolidated support behind broad party alliances backing Freitas, reducing the likelihood of a runoff. Haddad’s higher rejection rates further limit his path. Trader consensus reflects this stability in recent surveys through late August. Late developments such as shifts in turnout, coalition fractures, or unforeseen events near the October 4 first-round vote could still influence final margins, though current evidence points to limited scope for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTarcísio de Freitas 97.8%
Fernando Haddad 1.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$303,919 Vol.
$303,919 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
98%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 97.8%
Fernando Haddad 1.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$303,919 Vol.
$303,919 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$143,967 Vol.
98%
Fernando Haddad
$48,954 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$77,262 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection, with consistent polling showing him ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15 points or more in first-round scenarios and often exceeding 50% of valid votes. Withdrawals by potential center-right contenders such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra have narrowed the field and consolidated support behind broad party alliances backing Freitas, reducing the likelihood of a runoff. Haddad’s higher rejection rates further limit his path. Trader consensus reflects this stability in recent surveys through late August. Late developments such as shifts in turnout, coalition fractures, or unforeseen events near the October 4 first-round vote could still influence final margins, though current evidence points to limited scope for reversal.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$303,919End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection, with consistent polling showing him ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15 points or more in first-round scenarios and often exceeding 50% of valid votes. Withdrawals by potential center-right contenders such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra have narrowed the field and consolidated support behind broad party alliances backing Freitas, reducing the likelihood of a runoff. Haddad’s higher rejection rates further limit his path. Trader consensus reflects this stability in recent surveys through late August. Late developments such as shifts in turnout, coalition fractures, or unforeseen events near the October 4 first-round vote could still influence final margins, though current evidence points to limited scope for reversal.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$303,919End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in São Paulo’s gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection, with consistent polling showing him ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15 points or more in first-round scenarios and often exceeding 50% of valid votes. Withdrawals by potential center-right contenders such as Kim Kataguiri and Paulo Serra have narrowed the field and consolidated support behind broad party alliances backing Freitas, reducing the likelihood of a runoff. Haddad’s higher rejection rates further limit his path. Trader consensus reflects this stability in recent surveys through late August. Late developments such as shifts in turnout, coalition fractures, or unforeseen events near the October 4 first-round vote could still influence final margins, though current evidence points to limited scope for reversal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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