**The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up for election on October 4 remains tightly contested, with trader odds reflecting the narrow gap between leading candidates Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede).** Both ex-ministers are running on the center-left coalition ticket headed by Fernando Haddad (PT) for governor, benefiting from established name recognition and party infrastructure. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Vox Brasil from late August and early September, show them clustered at the top alongside right-leaning challengers André do Prado (PL) and Guilherme Derrite (PP), who draw support from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s base. High undecided and blank/null shares (often 20-40%) plus the mechanics of voters selecting up to two names keep second-place positioning fluid. Shifts in turnout among swing voters or late campaign momentum could separate the field before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSimone Tebet 35%
Marina Silva 31%
André do Prado 18.5%
Guilherme Derrite 18%
$42,082 Vol.
$42,082 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
35%
Marina Silva
31%
André do Prado
19%
Guilherme Derrite
18%
Salles
4%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Simone Tebet 35%
Marina Silva 31%
André do Prado 18.5%
Guilherme Derrite 18%
$42,082 Vol.
$42,082 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
$9,499 Vol.
35%
Marina Silva
$10,441 Vol.
31%
André do Prado
$5,227 Vol.
19%
Guilherme Derrite
$6,814 Vol.
18%
Salles
$4,858 Vol.
4%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$580 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$528 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$408 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$757 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$813 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$686 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$457 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$406 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$608 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up for election on October 4 remains tightly contested, with trader odds reflecting the narrow gap between leading candidates Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede).** Both ex-ministers are running on the center-left coalition ticket headed by Fernando Haddad (PT) for governor, benefiting from established name recognition and party infrastructure. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Vox Brasil from late August and early September, show them clustered at the top alongside right-leaning challengers André do Prado (PL) and Guilherme Derrite (PP), who draw support from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s base. High undecided and blank/null shares (often 20-40%) plus the mechanics of voters selecting up to two names keep second-place positioning fluid. Shifts in turnout among swing voters or late campaign momentum could separate the field before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$42,082End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up for election on October 4 remains tightly contested, with trader odds reflecting the narrow gap between leading candidates Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede).** Both ex-ministers are running on the center-left coalition ticket headed by Fernando Haddad (PT) for governor, benefiting from established name recognition and party infrastructure. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Vox Brasil from late August and early September, show them clustered at the top alongside right-leaning challengers André do Prado (PL) and Guilherme Derrite (PP), who draw support from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s base. High undecided and blank/null shares (often 20-40%) plus the mechanics of voters selecting up to two names keep second-place positioning fluid. Shifts in turnout among swing voters or late campaign momentum could separate the field before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$42,082End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up for election on October 4 remains tightly contested, with trader odds reflecting the narrow gap between leading candidates Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede).** Both ex-ministers are running on the center-left coalition ticket headed by Fernando Haddad (PT) for governor, benefiting from established name recognition and party infrastructure. Recent surveys, including Quaest and Vox Brasil from late August and early September, show them clustered at the top alongside right-leaning challengers André do Prado (PL) and Guilherme Derrite (PP), who draw support from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s base. High undecided and blank/null shares (often 20-40%) plus the mechanics of voters selecting up to two names keep second-place positioning fluid. Shifts in turnout among swing voters or late campaign momentum could separate the field before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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