Multiple candidates remain tightly bunched in recent polling for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL), Ubiratã Sanderson (PL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Paulo Pimenta (PT) separated by only a few points in consolidated first-and-second-preference surveys conducted through late August. High undecided shares and the requirement to select two senators sustain uncertainty over exact finishing order, keeping implied probabilities for second place clustered near even money across many names. Coalition alignments tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race and limited late-cycle shifts have so far prevented any single contender from opening a durable lead. Upcoming debates and final poll releases before the October 4 first round could still reorder the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedManuela D'Ávila 32%
Marcel Van Hattem 32%
Pimenta 25%
Rigotto 10%
$26,931 Vol.
$26,931 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Manuela D'Ávila
32%
Marcel Van Hattem
32%
Pimenta
25%
Rigotto
10%
Sanderson
6%
Ric Jones
<1%
Frederico Antunes
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
<1%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
<1%
Luciano do MLB
<1%
Milton Cardoso
<1%
Regis Ethur
<1%
Tania Peres
<1%
Manuela D'Ávila 32%
Marcel Van Hattem 32%
Pimenta 25%
Rigotto 10%
$26,931 Vol.
$26,931 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Manuela D'Ávila
$7,354 Vol.
32%
Marcel Van Hattem
$8,696 Vol.
32%
Pimenta
$2,232 Vol.
25%
Rigotto
$1,236 Vol.
10%
Sanderson
$1,461 Vol.
6%
Ric Jones
$742 Vol.
<1%
Frederico Antunes
$711 Vol.
<1%
Renato Jaguarão
$788 Vol.
<1%
Daniela Mulheres Socialistas
$832 Vol.
<1%
Luciano do MLB
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
Milton Cardoso
$340 Vol.
<1%
Regis Ethur
$419 Vol.
<1%
Tania Peres
$1,032 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Multiple candidates remain tightly bunched in recent polling for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL), Ubiratã Sanderson (PL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Paulo Pimenta (PT) separated by only a few points in consolidated first-and-second-preference surveys conducted through late August. High undecided shares and the requirement to select two senators sustain uncertainty over exact finishing order, keeping implied probabilities for second place clustered near even money across many names. Coalition alignments tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race and limited late-cycle shifts have so far prevented any single contender from opening a durable lead. Upcoming debates and final poll releases before the October 4 first round could still reorder the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Volume
$26,931End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Multiple candidates remain tightly bunched in recent polling for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL), Ubiratã Sanderson (PL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Paulo Pimenta (PT) separated by only a few points in consolidated first-and-second-preference surveys conducted through late August. High undecided shares and the requirement to select two senators sustain uncertainty over exact finishing order, keeping implied probabilities for second place clustered near even money across many names. Coalition alignments tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race and limited late-cycle shifts have so far prevented any single contender from opening a durable lead. Upcoming debates and final poll releases before the October 4 first round could still reorder the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,931End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple candidates remain tightly bunched in recent polling for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats, with Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL), Ubiratã Sanderson (PL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Paulo Pimenta (PT) separated by only a few points in consolidated first-and-second-preference surveys conducted through late August. High undecided shares and the requirement to select two senators sustain uncertainty over exact finishing order, keeping implied probabilities for second place clustered near even money across many names. Coalition alignments tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race and limited late-cycle shifts have so far prevented any single contender from opening a durable lead. Upcoming debates and final poll releases before the October 4 first round could still reorder the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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