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icon for Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Main Election

Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Main Election

Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place

Marcel Van Hattem 44%

Manuela D'Ávila 40%

Sanderson 7.9%

Milton Cardoso 6.1%

Polymarket

$29,400 Vol.

Marcel Van Hattem 44%

Manuela D'Ávila 40%

Sanderson 7.9%

Milton Cardoso 6.1%

Polymarket

$29,400 Vol.

icon for Marcel Van Hattem

Marcel Van Hattem

$10,950 Vol.

44%

icon for Manuela D'Ávila

Manuela D'Ávila

$11,879 Vol.

40%

icon for Sanderson

Sanderson

$973 Vol.

9%

icon for Milton Cardoso

Milton Cardoso

$436 Vol.

6%

icon for Rigotto

Rigotto

$495 Vol.

6%

icon for Tania Peres

Tania Peres

$530 Vol.

2%

icon for Pimenta

Pimenta

$1,312 Vol.

2%

icon for Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

$471 Vol.

2%

icon for Regis Ethur

Regis Ethur

$471 Vol.

1%

icon for Luciano do MLB

Luciano do MLB

$424 Vol.

<1%

icon for Frederico Antunes

Frederico Antunes

$679 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renato Jaguarão

Renato Jaguarão

$379 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ric Jones

Ric Jones

$401 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes including Real Time Big Data and Quaest shows Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) and Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL) holding narrow leads or technical ties for first place in the October 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate contest, with Ubiratã Sanderson (PL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Paulo Pimenta (PT) clustered within the margin of error. High undecided shares, often exceeding 30 percent even in stimulated scenarios, and the contest for two seats keep the field fragmented across parties. Trader pricing on the first-place market aligns with this snapshot, pricing the top two near even odds while assigning single-digit probabilities to the next tier. Any shift in voter consolidation, late endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could separate the leaders before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,400
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes including Real Time Big Data and Quaest shows Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) and Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL) holding narrow leads or technical ties for first place in the October 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate contest, with Ubiratã Sanderson (PL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Paulo Pimenta (PT) clustered within the margin of error. High undecided shares, often exceeding 30 percent even in stimulated scenarios, and the contest for two seats keep the field fragmented across parties. Trader pricing on the first-place market aligns with this snapshot, pricing the top two near even odds while assigning single-digit probabilities to the next tier. Any shift in voter consolidation, late endorsements, or turnout patterns among key blocs could separate the leaders before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,400
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marcel Van Hattem" at 44%, followed by "Manuela D'Ávila" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $29.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Marcel Van Hattem" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Manuela D'Ávila" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.