João Azevêdo (PSB) holds an 82% implied probability for first place in the Paraíba Senate race because recent August 2026 polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show him leading consolidated first- and second-vote intentions at 27–38%, far ahead of others, reflecting his profile as the outgoing two-term governor who resigned to run. Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), the incumbent seeking re-election, trails at 14% in the market and 17–25% in surveys, supported by his Senate tenure and coalition backing. Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) and Dr. Marcelo Queiroga (PL) register single-digit to mid-teens polling shares consistent with their 4% and sub-1% market prices, while the remaining field stays fragmented. The October 4 first-round vote, where voters select two distinct candidates for the top-two seats, continues to shape trader positioning around these name-recognition and survey trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJoao Azevêdo 82%
Veneziano 14.3%
Nabor 4.4%
Major Fábio <1%
$13,062 Vol.
$13,062 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Joao Azevêdo
82%
Veneziano
14%
Nabor
4%
Major Fábio
1%
João Batista
<1%
André Gadelha
<1%
Dr. Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Rinaldo Júnior
<1%
Adriano Trajano
<1%
Rosilene Santana
<1%
Joao Azevêdo 82%
Veneziano 14.3%
Nabor 4.4%
Major Fábio <1%
$13,062 Vol.
$13,062 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Joao Azevêdo
$8,057 Vol.
82%
Veneziano
$1,822 Vol.
14%
Nabor
$498 Vol.
4%
Major Fábio
$334 Vol.
1%
João Batista
$342 Vol.
<1%
André Gadelha
$384 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Marcelo Queiroga
$347 Vol.
<1%
Rinaldo Júnior
$390 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Trajano
$421 Vol.
<1%
Rosilene Santana
$469 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).João Azevêdo (PSB) holds an 82% implied probability for first place in the Paraíba Senate race because recent August 2026 polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show him leading consolidated first- and second-vote intentions at 27–38%, far ahead of others, reflecting his profile as the outgoing two-term governor who resigned to run. Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), the incumbent seeking re-election, trails at 14% in the market and 17–25% in surveys, supported by his Senate tenure and coalition backing. Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) and Dr. Marcelo Queiroga (PL) register single-digit to mid-teens polling shares consistent with their 4% and sub-1% market prices, while the remaining field stays fragmented. The October 4 first-round vote, where voters select two distinct candidates for the top-two seats, continues to shape trader positioning around these name-recognition and survey trends.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$13,062End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).João Azevêdo (PSB) holds an 82% implied probability for first place in the Paraíba Senate race because recent August 2026 polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show him leading consolidated first- and second-vote intentions at 27–38%, far ahead of others, reflecting his profile as the outgoing two-term governor who resigned to run. Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), the incumbent seeking re-election, trails at 14% in the market and 17–25% in surveys, supported by his Senate tenure and coalition backing. Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) and Dr. Marcelo Queiroga (PL) register single-digit to mid-teens polling shares consistent with their 4% and sub-1% market prices, while the remaining field stays fragmented. The October 4 first-round vote, where voters select two distinct candidates for the top-two seats, continues to shape trader positioning around these name-recognition and survey trends.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,062End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...João Azevêdo (PSB) holds an 82% implied probability for first place in the Paraíba Senate race because recent August 2026 polls from Quaest and Real Time Big Data show him leading consolidated first- and second-vote intentions at 27–38%, far ahead of others, reflecting his profile as the outgoing two-term governor who resigned to run. Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB), the incumbent seeking re-election, trails at 14% in the market and 17–25% in surveys, supported by his Senate tenure and coalition backing. Nabor Wanderley (Republicanos) and Dr. Marcelo Queiroga (PL) register single-digit to mid-teens polling shares consistent with their 4% and sub-1% market prices, while the remaining field stays fragmented. The October 4 first-round vote, where voters select two distinct candidates for the top-two seats, continues to shape trader positioning around these name-recognition and survey trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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