Eduardo Riedel (PP), the incumbent governor of Mato Grosso do Sul seeking re-election with backing from a broad coalition including PL, MDB, Republicanos, and others, holds a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, first-round contest. Recent polls from late August and early September, including AtlasIntel and others, show him with 40-49% support, far ahead of Fábio Trad (PT) at 13-26% and João Henrique Catan (Novo) around 12%, with remaining candidates below 1%. This positioning stems from his established incumbency advantage, reported approval ratings near 51%, and consistent polling trends across multiple surveys indicating a potential outright first-round win on valid votes. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these dynamics, though outcomes remain subject to shifts from voter mobilization, campaign events, or turnout in the final weeks before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Riedel 94%
Economista Renato Gomes 1.4%
João Henrique Catan <1%
Jeferson Bezerra <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Riedel
94%
Economista Renato Gomes
1%
João Henrique Catan
1%
Jeferson Bezerra
1%
Fábio Trad
1%
Delcidio Amaral
<1%
Lucien Rezende
<1%
Daniel Lemes
<1%
Eduardo Riedel 94%
Economista Renato Gomes 1.4%
João Henrique Catan <1%
Jeferson Bezerra <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Riedel
$3,194 Vol.
94%
Economista Renato Gomes
$355 Vol.
1%
João Henrique Catan
$262 Vol.
1%
Jeferson Bezerra
$379 Vol.
1%
Fábio Trad
$299 Vol.
1%
Delcidio Amaral
$351 Vol.
<1%
Lucien Rezende
$365 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Lemes
$364 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Riedel (PP), the incumbent governor of Mato Grosso do Sul seeking re-election with backing from a broad coalition including PL, MDB, Republicanos, and others, holds a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, first-round contest. Recent polls from late August and early September, including AtlasIntel and others, show him with 40-49% support, far ahead of Fábio Trad (PT) at 13-26% and João Henrique Catan (Novo) around 12%, with remaining candidates below 1%. This positioning stems from his established incumbency advantage, reported approval ratings near 51%, and consistent polling trends across multiple surveys indicating a potential outright first-round win on valid votes. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these dynamics, though outcomes remain subject to shifts from voter mobilization, campaign events, or turnout in the final weeks before voting.
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ET
Volume
$5,569End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Riedel (PP), the incumbent governor of Mato Grosso do Sul seeking re-election with backing from a broad coalition including PL, MDB, Republicanos, and others, holds a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, first-round contest. Recent polls from late August and early September, including AtlasIntel and others, show him with 40-49% support, far ahead of Fábio Trad (PT) at 13-26% and João Henrique Catan (Novo) around 12%, with remaining candidates below 1%. This positioning stems from his established incumbency advantage, reported approval ratings near 51%, and consistent polling trends across multiple surveys indicating a potential outright first-round win on valid votes. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these dynamics, though outcomes remain subject to shifts from voter mobilization, campaign events, or turnout in the final weeks before voting.
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,569End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Riedel (PP), the incumbent governor of Mato Grosso do Sul seeking re-election with backing from a broad coalition including PL, MDB, Republicanos, and others, holds a commanding lead in the October 4, 2026, first-round contest. Recent polls from late August and early September, including AtlasIntel and others, show him with 40-49% support, far ahead of Fábio Trad (PT) at 13-26% and João Henrique Catan (Novo) around 12%, with remaining candidates below 1%. This positioning stems from his established incumbency advantage, reported approval ratings near 51%, and consistent polling trends across multiple surveys indicating a potential outright first-round win on valid votes. Trader consensus on prediction markets aligns with these dynamics, though outcomes remain subject to shifts from voter mobilization, campaign events, or turnout in the final weeks before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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