Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race for first place due to consistent polling strength from his record as former governor and federal minister, backed by the PT's statewide organization and alignment with the Lula administration. Recent surveys from late August and early September, including Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas, place him ahead of fellow PT candidate and incumbent Jaques Wagner, with the pair positioned to capture both seats in the October 4 election where voters select two senators. Opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in single digits or low teens in consolidated vote shares, reflecting limited momentum despite their legislative experience and party coalitions. Trader consensus reflects these patterns, with low probabilities for remaining minor candidates amid high undecided and blank/null shares near 20-30% in most polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 70%
Jaques Wagner 14.8%
Angelo Coronel 5.4%
João Roma 4.7%
$26,321 Vol.
$26,321 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
70%
Jaques Wagner
15%
Angelo Coronel
5%
João Roma
5%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 70%
Jaques Wagner 14.8%
Angelo Coronel 5.4%
João Roma 4.7%
$26,321 Vol.
$26,321 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$11,507 Vol.
70%
Jaques Wagner
$5,732 Vol.
15%
Angelo Coronel
$1,835 Vol.
5%
João Roma
$2,802 Vol.
5%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sodré
$800 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$691 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$741 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$810 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$775 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race for first place due to consistent polling strength from his record as former governor and federal minister, backed by the PT's statewide organization and alignment with the Lula administration. Recent surveys from late August and early September, including Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas, place him ahead of fellow PT candidate and incumbent Jaques Wagner, with the pair positioned to capture both seats in the October 4 election where voters select two senators. Opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in single digits or low teens in consolidated vote shares, reflecting limited momentum despite their legislative experience and party coalitions. Trader consensus reflects these patterns, with low probabilities for remaining minor candidates amid high undecided and blank/null shares near 20-30% in most polls.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$26,321End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race for first place due to consistent polling strength from his record as former governor and federal minister, backed by the PT's statewide organization and alignment with the Lula administration. Recent surveys from late August and early September, including Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas, place him ahead of fellow PT candidate and incumbent Jaques Wagner, with the pair positioned to capture both seats in the October 4 election where voters select two senators. Opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in single digits or low teens in consolidated vote shares, reflecting limited momentum despite their legislative experience and party coalitions. Trader consensus reflects these patterns, with low probabilities for remaining minor candidates amid high undecided and blank/null shares near 20-30% in most polls.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,321End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa (PT) leads the Bahia Senate race for first place due to consistent polling strength from his record as former governor and federal minister, backed by the PT's statewide organization and alignment with the Lula administration. Recent surveys from late August and early September, including Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Paraná Pesquisas, place him ahead of fellow PT candidate and incumbent Jaques Wagner, with the pair positioned to capture both seats in the October 4 election where voters select two senators. Opposition figures such as João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) trail in single digits or low teens in consolidated vote shares, reflecting limited momentum despite their legislative experience and party coalitions. Trader consensus reflects these patterns, with low probabilities for remaining minor candidates amid high undecided and blank/null shares near 20-30% in most polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions