The tight race for second place in Alagoas's October 4 Senate election stems from closely matched polling among Arthur Lira, Renan Calheiros, and Marina JHC in recent surveys, with Lira often edging ahead in combined first- and second-choice totals while the others remain within margins of error. Marina JHC's entry after Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal to run as vice-presidential candidate has added a competitive name with strong regional ties, fragmenting support across alliances and sustaining uncertainty in the dual-vote system. Traders reflect this balance through similar implied probabilities, as high undecided rates and shifting coalitions limit separation until final campaign weeks and turnout patterns clarify outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarina JHC 36%
Renan 35%
Arthur Lira 24%
Davi Davino Filho 4.0%
$23,625 Vol.
$23,625 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marina JHC
36%
Renan
35%
Arthur Lira
24%
Davi Davino Filho
4%
Dr. Wanderley
1%
Alexandre Fleming
<1%
Mariedson
<1%
Marina JHC 36%
Renan 35%
Arthur Lira 24%
Davi Davino Filho 4.0%
$23,625 Vol.
$23,625 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marina JHC
$4,953 Vol.
36%
Renan
$9,220 Vol.
35%
Arthur Lira
$5,669 Vol.
24%
Davi Davino Filho
$1,067 Vol.
4%
Dr. Wanderley
$1,398 Vol.
1%
Alexandre Fleming
$558 Vol.
<1%
Mariedson
$759 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for second place in Alagoas's October 4 Senate election stems from closely matched polling among Arthur Lira, Renan Calheiros, and Marina JHC in recent surveys, with Lira often edging ahead in combined first- and second-choice totals while the others remain within margins of error. Marina JHC's entry after Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal to run as vice-presidential candidate has added a competitive name with strong regional ties, fragmenting support across alliances and sustaining uncertainty in the dual-vote system. Traders reflect this balance through similar implied probabilities, as high undecided rates and shifting coalitions limit separation until final campaign weeks and turnout patterns clarify outcomes.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volume
$23,625End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for second place in Alagoas's October 4 Senate election stems from closely matched polling among Arthur Lira, Renan Calheiros, and Marina JHC in recent surveys, with Lira often edging ahead in combined first- and second-choice totals while the others remain within margins of error. Marina JHC's entry after Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal to run as vice-presidential candidate has added a competitive name with strong regional ties, fragmenting support across alliances and sustaining uncertainty in the dual-vote system. Traders reflect this balance through similar implied probabilities, as high undecided rates and shifting coalitions limit separation until final campaign weeks and turnout patterns clarify outcomes.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,625End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race for second place in Alagoas's October 4 Senate election stems from closely matched polling among Arthur Lira, Renan Calheiros, and Marina JHC in recent surveys, with Lira often edging ahead in combined first- and second-choice totals while the others remain within margins of error. Marina JHC's entry after Alfredo Gaspar's withdrawal to run as vice-presidential candidate has added a competitive name with strong regional ties, fragmenting support across alliances and sustaining uncertainty in the dual-vote system. Traders reflect this balance through similar implied probabilities, as high undecided rates and shifting coalitions limit separation until final campaign weeks and turnout patterns clarify outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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