Recent polling from late August shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading or tied with Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round scenarios at 33-39% versus 25-35%, with both advancing to a likely second-round runoff on October 25. Dorinha benefits from her Senate tenure, prior service as state education secretary, endorsements from over 100 mayors, and a broad coalition including the Republicanos party of incumbent Governor Wanderlei Barbosa. Vicentinho Júnior, a three-term federal deputy, draws support from his PSDB base and assembly alliances but trails in most surveys. Minor candidates including Laurez Moreira (PSD), Ataídes de Oliveira (Novo), and others register single-digit support or less, consistent with low implied probabilities. The first round occurs October 4.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedProfessora Dorinha 63%
Vicentinho Júnior 38%
Du Pereira <1%
Ataides de Oliveira <1%
$16,687 Vol.
$16,687 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Professora Dorinha
63%
Vicentinho Júnior
38%
Du Pereira
<1%
Ataides de Oliveira
<1%
Laurez Moreira
<1%
Prof. Witer Naves
<1%
Subtenente Luiz Carlos
<1%
Professora Dorinha 63%
Vicentinho Júnior 38%
Du Pereira <1%
Ataides de Oliveira <1%
$16,687 Vol.
$16,687 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Professora Dorinha
$3,454 Vol.
63%
Vicentinho Júnior
$5,841 Vol.
38%
Du Pereira
$2,542 Vol.
<1%
Ataides de Oliveira
$1,715 Vol.
<1%
Laurez Moreira
$645 Vol.
<1%
Prof. Witer Naves
$1,515 Vol.
<1%
Subtenente Luiz Carlos
$977 Vol.
<1%
The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading or tied with Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round scenarios at 33-39% versus 25-35%, with both advancing to a likely second-round runoff on October 25. Dorinha benefits from her Senate tenure, prior service as state education secretary, endorsements from over 100 mayors, and a broad coalition including the Republicanos party of incumbent Governor Wanderlei Barbosa. Vicentinho Júnior, a three-term federal deputy, draws support from his PSDB base and assembly alliances but trails in most surveys. Minor candidates including Laurez Moreira (PSD), Ataídes de Oliveira (Novo), and others register single-digit support or less, consistent with low implied probabilities. The first round occurs October 4.
The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:39 AM ET
Volume
$16,687End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading or tied with Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round scenarios at 33-39% versus 25-35%, with both advancing to a likely second-round runoff on October 25. Dorinha benefits from her Senate tenure, prior service as state education secretary, endorsements from over 100 mayors, and a broad coalition including the Republicanos party of incumbent Governor Wanderlei Barbosa. Vicentinho Júnior, a three-term federal deputy, draws support from his PSDB base and assembly alliances but trails in most surveys. Minor candidates including Laurez Moreira (PSD), Ataídes de Oliveira (Novo), and others register single-digit support or less, consistent with low implied probabilities. The first round occurs October 4.
The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,687End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading or tied with Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round scenarios at 33-39% versus 25-35%, with both advancing to a likely second-round runoff on October 25. Dorinha benefits from her Senate tenure, prior service as state education secretary, endorsements from over 100 mayors, and a broad coalition including the Republicanos party of incumbent Governor Wanderlei Barbosa. Vicentinho Júnior, a three-term federal deputy, draws support from his PSDB base and assembly alliances but trails in most surveys. Minor candidates including Laurez Moreira (PSD), Ataídes de Oliveira (Novo), and others register single-digit support or less, consistent with low implied probabilities. The first round occurs October 4.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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