São Paulo's October 2026 Senate contest features two seats, creating intense competition for second place among a crowded field. Recent polls from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Vox Brasil show Marina Silva and Simone Tebet, running on Fernando Haddad's gubernatorial ticket, holding narrow leads in vote intention, while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles remain within striking distance in technical ties. The fragmented electorate, high undecided share, and dual-vote format sustain volatility, with no candidate consolidating a clear advantage. Late-campaign events such as debates, endorsements from state party leaders, or shifts in the parallel gubernatorial race could reorder preferences and separate contenders ahead of election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSimone Tebet 35%
Marina Silva 31%
André do Prado 19.1%
Guilherme Derrite 18%
$42,082 Vol.
$42,082 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
35%
Marina Silva
31%
André do Prado
19%
Guilherme Derrite
18%
Salles
4%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Simone Tebet 35%
Marina Silva 31%
André do Prado 19.1%
Guilherme Derrite 18%
$42,082 Vol.
$42,082 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
$9,499 Vol.
35%
Marina Silva
$10,441 Vol.
31%
André do Prado
$5,227 Vol.
19%
Guilherme Derrite
$6,814 Vol.
18%
Salles
$4,858 Vol.
4%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$580 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$528 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$408 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$757 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$813 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$686 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$457 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$406 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$608 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo's October 2026 Senate contest features two seats, creating intense competition for second place among a crowded field. Recent polls from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Vox Brasil show Marina Silva and Simone Tebet, running on Fernando Haddad's gubernatorial ticket, holding narrow leads in vote intention, while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles remain within striking distance in technical ties. The fragmented electorate, high undecided share, and dual-vote format sustain volatility, with no candidate consolidating a clear advantage. Late-campaign events such as debates, endorsements from state party leaders, or shifts in the parallel gubernatorial race could reorder preferences and separate contenders ahead of election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$42,082End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo's October 2026 Senate contest features two seats, creating intense competition for second place among a crowded field. Recent polls from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Vox Brasil show Marina Silva and Simone Tebet, running on Fernando Haddad's gubernatorial ticket, holding narrow leads in vote intention, while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles remain within striking distance in technical ties. The fragmented electorate, high undecided share, and dual-vote format sustain volatility, with no candidate consolidating a clear advantage. Late-campaign events such as debates, endorsements from state party leaders, or shifts in the parallel gubernatorial race could reorder preferences and separate contenders ahead of election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$42,082End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...São Paulo's October 2026 Senate contest features two seats, creating intense competition for second place among a crowded field. Recent polls from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Vox Brasil show Marina Silva and Simone Tebet, running on Fernando Haddad's gubernatorial ticket, holding narrow leads in vote intention, while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles remain within striking distance in technical ties. The fragmented electorate, high undecided share, and dual-vote format sustain volatility, with no candidate consolidating a clear advantage. Late-campaign events such as debates, endorsements from state party leaders, or shifts in the parallel gubernatorial race could reorder preferences and separate contenders ahead of election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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