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icon for São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place

Guilherme Derrite 45%

Simone Tebet 25.7%

Marina Silva 14%

André do Prado 3.9%

Polymarket

$40,474 Vol.

Guilherme Derrite 45%

Simone Tebet 25.7%

Marina Silva 14%

André do Prado 3.9%

Polymarket

$40,474 Vol.

icon for Guilherme Derrite

Guilherme Derrite

$24,932 Vol.

45%

icon for Simone Tebet

Simone Tebet

$1,932 Vol.

26%

icon for Marina Silva

Marina Silva

$4,494 Vol.

14%

icon for André do Prado

André do Prado

$2,379 Vol.

4%

icon for Salles

Salles

$1,951 Vol.

2%

icon for Soninha Francine

Soninha Francine

$474 Vol.

<1%

icon for Weller Gonçalves

Weller Gonçalves

$383 Vol.

<1%

icon for William Teixeira

William Teixeira

$733 Vol.

<1%

icon for Maíra de Souza

Maíra de Souza

$396 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcio Alves

Marcio Alves

$552 Vol.

<1%

icon for Petter Maahs

Petter Maahs

$419 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dra. Eliana Ferreira

Dra. Eliana Ferreira

$613 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ednelson Cesaretti

Ednelson Cesaretti

$737 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Rufino

Geraldo Rufino

$480 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up in the October 2026 election remains highly competitive, with recent polls showing a tight contest among Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB).** A late-August Quaest survey placed Derrite and Marina at 12% each and Tebet at 11% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, within the margin of error, amid 27% undecided and 18% blank/null responses. Derrite draws support from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s base, while Marina and Tebet benefit from name recognition as former Lula ministers and alignment with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial ticket. André do Prado (PL) and Ricardo Salles (Novo) trail further back. High undecided voters and the plurality block voting system—where each elector selects two names—keep first-place probabilities fluid, with late shifts in turnout or alliances among center-right and center-left blocs the main variables that could separate the leaders before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$40,474
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up in the October 2026 election remains highly competitive, with recent polls showing a tight contest among Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB).** A late-August Quaest survey placed Derrite and Marina at 12% each and Tebet at 11% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, within the margin of error, amid 27% undecided and 18% blank/null responses. Derrite draws support from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s base, while Marina and Tebet benefit from name recognition as former Lula ministers and alignment with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial ticket. André do Prado (PL) and Ricardo Salles (Novo) trail further back. High undecided voters and the plurality block voting system—where each elector selects two names—keep first-place probabilities fluid, with late shifts in turnout or alliances among center-right and center-left blocs the main variables that could separate the leaders before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$40,474
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Guilherme Derrite" at 45%, followed by "Simone Tebet" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $40.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Guilherme Derrite" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Simone Tebet" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.