Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4 Senate election, where two seats are at stake. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest through early September show her consistently ahead in consolidated first- and second-choice voting, reaching 29% in the latest tested scenario while Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) remain in a technical tie for second around 19-20%. Earlier Datafolha and Genial/Quaest releases from July and August similarly placed Arraes at the top of the field, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) further back. Traders appear to price this sustained polling edge, combined with Arraes’s name recognition and party positioning, as the main factor elevating her odds above the rest of the 12-candidate field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 57%
Humberto Costa 23.9%
Mendonça Filho 9.7%
Eduardo da Fonte 6.7%
$26,854 Vol.
$26,854 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
57%
Humberto Costa
21%
Mendonça Filho
10%
Eduardo da Fonte
7%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 57%
Humberto Costa 23.9%
Mendonça Filho 9.7%
Eduardo da Fonte 6.7%
$26,854 Vol.
$26,854 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$12,563 Vol.
57%
Humberto Costa
$7,998 Vol.
21%
Mendonça Filho
$1,269 Vol.
10%
Eduardo da Fonte
$804 Vol.
7%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$517 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$542 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$567 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$549 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$552 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$500 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4 Senate election, where two seats are at stake. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest through early September show her consistently ahead in consolidated first- and second-choice voting, reaching 29% in the latest tested scenario while Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) remain in a technical tie for second around 19-20%. Earlier Datafolha and Genial/Quaest releases from July and August similarly placed Arraes at the top of the field, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) further back. Traders appear to price this sustained polling edge, combined with Arraes’s name recognition and party positioning, as the main factor elevating her odds above the rest of the 12-candidate field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$26,854End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4 Senate election, where two seats are at stake. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest through early September show her consistently ahead in consolidated first- and second-choice voting, reaching 29% in the latest tested scenario while Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) remain in a technical tie for second around 19-20%. Earlier Datafolha and Genial/Quaest releases from July and August similarly placed Arraes at the top of the field, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) further back. Traders appear to price this sustained polling edge, combined with Arraes’s name recognition and party positioning, as the main factor elevating her odds above the rest of the 12-candidate field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,854End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4 Senate election, where two seats are at stake. Recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest through early September show her consistently ahead in consolidated first- and second-choice voting, reaching 29% in the latest tested scenario while Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL) remain in a technical tie for second around 19-20%. Earlier Datafolha and Genial/Quaest releases from July and August similarly placed Arraes at the top of the field, with Eduardo da Fonte (PP) and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) further back. Traders appear to price this sustained polling edge, combined with Arraes’s name recognition and party positioning, as the main factor elevating her odds above the rest of the 12-candidate field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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