Recent polling in the Distrito Federal Senate race shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading with around 25% support, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher, while incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails in second at roughly 17%. This gap, consistent across late-August surveys, underpins trader consensus favoring Leila for second place at 63.5%. Her established visibility as a sitting senator and former athlete, combined with a coalition including PT and PSOL backing, contrasts with lower support for Bia Kicis (PL) at 9-13% and Erika Kokay (PT) at 10-12%. Party conventions in early August formalized the main candidacies, with no major shifts reported since. The election on October 4 uses plurality block voting for two seats, making second-place positioning sensitive to turnout and vote splitting among the 13 registered contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 64%
Bia Kicis 12.8%
Erika Kokay 10%
Michelle Bolsonaro 9.6%
$36,663 Vol.
$36,663 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
64%
Bia Kicis
13%
Erika Kokay
10%
Michelle Bolsonaro
10%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 64%
Bia Kicis 12.8%
Erika Kokay 10%
Michelle Bolsonaro 9.6%
$36,663 Vol.
$36,663 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$12,938 Vol.
64%
Bia Kicis
$7,650 Vol.
13%
Erika Kokay
$6,055 Vol.
10%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$4,213 Vol.
10%
David Horn
$1,967 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in the Distrito Federal Senate race shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading with around 25% support, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher, while incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails in second at roughly 17%. This gap, consistent across late-August surveys, underpins trader consensus favoring Leila for second place at 63.5%. Her established visibility as a sitting senator and former athlete, combined with a coalition including PT and PSOL backing, contrasts with lower support for Bia Kicis (PL) at 9-13% and Erika Kokay (PT) at 10-12%. Party conventions in early August formalized the main candidacies, with no major shifts reported since. The election on October 4 uses plurality block voting for two seats, making second-place positioning sensitive to turnout and vote splitting among the 13 registered contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$36,663End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in the Distrito Federal Senate race shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading with around 25% support, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher, while incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails in second at roughly 17%. This gap, consistent across late-August surveys, underpins trader consensus favoring Leila for second place at 63.5%. Her established visibility as a sitting senator and former athlete, combined with a coalition including PT and PSOL backing, contrasts with lower support for Bia Kicis (PL) at 9-13% and Erika Kokay (PT) at 10-12%. Party conventions in early August formalized the main candidacies, with no major shifts reported since. The election on October 4 uses plurality block voting for two seats, making second-place positioning sensitive to turnout and vote splitting among the 13 registered contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$36,663End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in the Distrito Federal Senate race shows Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leading with around 25% support, positioning her as the likely first-place finisher, while incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) trails in second at roughly 17%. This gap, consistent across late-August surveys, underpins trader consensus favoring Leila for second place at 63.5%. Her established visibility as a sitting senator and former athlete, combined with a coalition including PT and PSOL backing, contrasts with lower support for Bia Kicis (PL) at 9-13% and Erika Kokay (PT) at 10-12%. Party conventions in early August formalized the main candidacies, with no major shifts reported since. The election on October 4 uses plurality block voting for two seats, making second-place positioning sensitive to turnout and vote splitting among the 13 registered contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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