Lula holds a clear edge in trader assessments for first place in the Tocantins first round, reflecting his incumbency, stronger regional organization in northern states, and consistent polling leads or technical ties in recent state surveys. Late August and early September data from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showed the president and Flávio Bolsonaro nearly even at around 36-37% each, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others trailing well behind. Market pricing at 67.5% for Lula versus 33% for Bolsonaro captures the wisdom of crowds factoring in PT machinery, national trends favoring the incumbent, and limited upside for challengers absent major shifts before the October vote. Other listed candidates remain marginal in both polls and pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 68%
Flavio Bolsonaro 33%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
$22,525 Vol.
$22,525 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
68%
Flavio Bolsonaro
33%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 68%
Flavio Bolsonaro 33%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
$22,525 Vol.
$22,525 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,762 Vol.
68%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$10,637 Vol.
33%
Edmilson Costa
$542 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$575 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$342 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,256 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$406 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$438 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$601 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$448 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$558 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$432 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$527 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a clear edge in trader assessments for first place in the Tocantins first round, reflecting his incumbency, stronger regional organization in northern states, and consistent polling leads or technical ties in recent state surveys. Late August and early September data from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showed the president and Flávio Bolsonaro nearly even at around 36-37% each, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others trailing well behind. Market pricing at 67.5% for Lula versus 33% for Bolsonaro captures the wisdom of crowds factoring in PT machinery, national trends favoring the incumbent, and limited upside for challengers absent major shifts before the October vote. Other listed candidates remain marginal in both polls and pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$22,525End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a clear edge in trader assessments for first place in the Tocantins first round, reflecting his incumbency, stronger regional organization in northern states, and consistent polling leads or technical ties in recent state surveys. Late August and early September data from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showed the president and Flávio Bolsonaro nearly even at around 36-37% each, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others trailing well behind. Market pricing at 67.5% for Lula versus 33% for Bolsonaro captures the wisdom of crowds factoring in PT machinery, national trends favoring the incumbent, and limited upside for challengers absent major shifts before the October vote. Other listed candidates remain marginal in both polls and pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,525End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a clear edge in trader assessments for first place in the Tocantins first round, reflecting his incumbency, stronger regional organization in northern states, and consistent polling leads or technical ties in recent state surveys. Late August and early September data from Real Time Big Data and Quaest showed the president and Flávio Bolsonaro nearly even at around 36-37% each, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others trailing well behind. Market pricing at 67.5% for Lula versus 33% for Bolsonaro captures the wisdom of crowds factoring in PT machinery, national trends favoring the incumbent, and limited upside for challengers absent major shifts before the October vote. Other listed candidates remain marginal in both polls and pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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