Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in Rondônia first-round polling due to the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong bolsonarista base, with recent local surveys showing him ahead of Lula by margins of 20 points or more. This regional dynamic, rooted in 2022 voting patterns and ongoing party organization by the PL, underpins trader consensus reflected in the elevated odds. National trends favoring Lula or rising support for candidates such as Augusto Cury have not materially altered state-level preferences to date. Late developments including shifts in turnout, endorsements, or campaign events in the weeks before the October 4 vote could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.6%
Renan Santos <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$15,668 Vol.
$15,668 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Renan Santos
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.6%
Renan Santos <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$15,668 Vol.
$15,668 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,421 Vol.
98%
Renan Santos
$465 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$465 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$455 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$514 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$505 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$555 Vol.
<1%
Lula
$631 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$525 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$555 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$525 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$525 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$525 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in Rondônia first-round polling due to the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong bolsonarista base, with recent local surveys showing him ahead of Lula by margins of 20 points or more. This regional dynamic, rooted in 2022 voting patterns and ongoing party organization by the PL, underpins trader consensus reflected in the elevated odds. National trends favoring Lula or rising support for candidates such as Augusto Cury have not materially altered state-level preferences to date. Late developments including shifts in turnout, endorsements, or campaign events in the weeks before the October 4 vote could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$15,668End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in Rondônia first-round polling due to the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong bolsonarista base, with recent local surveys showing him ahead of Lula by margins of 20 points or more. This regional dynamic, rooted in 2022 voting patterns and ongoing party organization by the PL, underpins trader consensus reflected in the elevated odds. National trends favoring Lula or rising support for candidates such as Augusto Cury have not materially altered state-level preferences to date. Late developments including shifts in turnout, endorsements, or campaign events in the weeks before the October 4 vote could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$15,668End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in Rondônia first-round polling due to the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong bolsonarista base, with recent local surveys showing him ahead of Lula by margins of 20 points or more. This regional dynamic, rooted in 2022 voting patterns and ongoing party organization by the PL, underpins trader consensus reflected in the elevated odds. National trends favoring Lula or rising support for candidates such as Augusto Cury have not materially altered state-level preferences to date. Late developments including shifts in turnout, endorsements, or campaign events in the weeks before the October 4 vote could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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