Flavio Bolsonaro holds an 81% implied probability of finishing first in Rio de Janeiro’s first-round presidential vote on October 4, 2026, reflecting Rio-specific polling that consistently places the Liberal Party senator ahead of or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula. Local surveys from July through early September, including Quaest, Real Time, and Datafolha, show Flavio at 31–36% in the state compared with Lula’s 29–34%, supported by his established voter base in a region where his father previously performed strongly. Lula trails in these Rio samples despite leading national aggregates. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, register single digits or lower in state testing, while fringe names remain negligible. The market pricing aligns with this regional pattern rather than nationwide trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 86%
Lula 16%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$21,420 Vol.
$21,420 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
86%
Lula
16%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 86%
Lula 16%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$21,420 Vol.
$21,420 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,266 Vol.
86%
Lula
$6,032 Vol.
16%
Pablo Marçal
$1,278 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$453 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$373 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$747 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$639 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$567 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$373 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$375 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$453 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$433 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds an 81% implied probability of finishing first in Rio de Janeiro’s first-round presidential vote on October 4, 2026, reflecting Rio-specific polling that consistently places the Liberal Party senator ahead of or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula. Local surveys from July through early September, including Quaest, Real Time, and Datafolha, show Flavio at 31–36% in the state compared with Lula’s 29–34%, supported by his established voter base in a region where his father previously performed strongly. Lula trails in these Rio samples despite leading national aggregates. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, register single digits or lower in state testing, while fringe names remain negligible. The market pricing aligns with this regional pattern rather than nationwide trends.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$21,420End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds an 81% implied probability of finishing first in Rio de Janeiro’s first-round presidential vote on October 4, 2026, reflecting Rio-specific polling that consistently places the Liberal Party senator ahead of or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula. Local surveys from July through early September, including Quaest, Real Time, and Datafolha, show Flavio at 31–36% in the state compared with Lula’s 29–34%, supported by his established voter base in a region where his father previously performed strongly. Lula trails in these Rio samples despite leading national aggregates. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, register single digits or lower in state testing, while fringe names remain negligible. The market pricing aligns with this regional pattern rather than nationwide trends.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$21,420End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro holds an 81% implied probability of finishing first in Rio de Janeiro’s first-round presidential vote on October 4, 2026, reflecting Rio-specific polling that consistently places the Liberal Party senator ahead of or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula. Local surveys from July through early September, including Quaest, Real Time, and Datafolha, show Flavio at 31–36% in the state compared with Lula’s 29–34%, supported by his established voter base in a region where his father previously performed strongly. Lula trails in these Rio samples despite leading national aggregates. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, register single digits or lower in state testing, while fringe names remain negligible. The market pricing aligns with this regional pattern rather than nationwide trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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