Lula's commanding 78.5% implied probability for first place in Minas Gerais reflects the incumbent president's durable support base in the state and the absence of decisive shifts in recent national polling or coalition realignments ahead of the 2026 first round. Traders price Flavio Bolsonaro at 22.3% as the clearest alternative, consistent with ongoing right-wing consolidation efforts but limited crossover appeal in this key battleground. The broad field of other candidates clustered near 50% or 0.1% indicates early-stage uncertainty, with no major endorsements, primary results, or regional economic developments yet elevating challengers. Scheduled party conventions and candidate registrations in the coming months remain the primary catalysts that could narrow these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 79%
Flavio Bolsonaro 22.2%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$19,430 Vol.
$19,430 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
79%
Flavio Bolsonaro
22%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 79%
Flavio Bolsonaro 22.2%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$19,430 Vol.
$19,430 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,599 Vol.
79%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,293 Vol.
22%
Pablo Marçal
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$844 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$525 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$484 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$491 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$649 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$576 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$1,951 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 78.5% implied probability for first place in Minas Gerais reflects the incumbent president's durable support base in the state and the absence of decisive shifts in recent national polling or coalition realignments ahead of the 2026 first round. Traders price Flavio Bolsonaro at 22.3% as the clearest alternative, consistent with ongoing right-wing consolidation efforts but limited crossover appeal in this key battleground. The broad field of other candidates clustered near 50% or 0.1% indicates early-stage uncertainty, with no major endorsements, primary results, or regional economic developments yet elevating challengers. Scheduled party conventions and candidate registrations in the coming months remain the primary catalysts that could narrow these probabilities.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$19,430End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 78.5% implied probability for first place in Minas Gerais reflects the incumbent president's durable support base in the state and the absence of decisive shifts in recent national polling or coalition realignments ahead of the 2026 first round. Traders price Flavio Bolsonaro at 22.3% as the clearest alternative, consistent with ongoing right-wing consolidation efforts but limited crossover appeal in this key battleground. The broad field of other candidates clustered near 50% or 0.1% indicates early-stage uncertainty, with no major endorsements, primary results, or regional economic developments yet elevating challengers. Scheduled party conventions and candidate registrations in the coming months remain the primary catalysts that could narrow these probabilities.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,430End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding 78.5% implied probability for first place in Minas Gerais reflects the incumbent president's durable support base in the state and the absence of decisive shifts in recent national polling or coalition realignments ahead of the 2026 first round. Traders price Flavio Bolsonaro at 22.3% as the clearest alternative, consistent with ongoing right-wing consolidation efforts but limited crossover appeal in this key battleground. The broad field of other candidates clustered near 50% or 0.1% indicates early-stage uncertainty, with no major endorsements, primary results, or regional economic developments yet elevating challengers. Scheduled party conventions and candidate registrations in the coming months remain the primary catalysts that could narrow these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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