Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo first-round polling for the October 2026 presidential election, reflecting the state’s consistent support for right-leaning candidates in recent cycles and sustained disapproval of President Lula’s administration among capixaba voters. Multiple surveys through August showed him ahead or tied with Lula at 35-37 percent to 30-34 percent, with other contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema registering low single digits. Traders appear to price in limited time for rivals to close the gap before the first-round vote on October 4, though shifts in turnout, late campaign momentum among smaller candidates, or unexpected national developments could still alter the outcome in this closely watched southeastern state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1.3%
Renan Santos <1%
$18,817 Vol.
$18,817 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
5%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1.3%
Renan Santos <1%
$18,817 Vol.
$18,817 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,093 Vol.
94%
Lula
$744 Vol.
5%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,095 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$853 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$855 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$506 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$948 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$903 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$892 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$517 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$902 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$535 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$974 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo first-round polling for the October 2026 presidential election, reflecting the state’s consistent support for right-leaning candidates in recent cycles and sustained disapproval of President Lula’s administration among capixaba voters. Multiple surveys through August showed him ahead or tied with Lula at 35-37 percent to 30-34 percent, with other contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema registering low single digits. Traders appear to price in limited time for rivals to close the gap before the first-round vote on October 4, though shifts in turnout, late campaign momentum among smaller candidates, or unexpected national developments could still alter the outcome in this closely watched southeastern state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$18,817End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo first-round polling for the October 2026 presidential election, reflecting the state’s consistent support for right-leaning candidates in recent cycles and sustained disapproval of President Lula’s administration among capixaba voters. Multiple surveys through August showed him ahead or tied with Lula at 35-37 percent to 30-34 percent, with other contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema registering low single digits. Traders appear to price in limited time for rivals to close the gap before the first-round vote on October 4, though shifts in turnout, late campaign momentum among smaller candidates, or unexpected national developments could still alter the outcome in this closely watched southeastern state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$18,817End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Espírito Santo first-round polling for the October 2026 presidential election, reflecting the state’s consistent support for right-leaning candidates in recent cycles and sustained disapproval of President Lula’s administration among capixaba voters. Multiple surveys through August showed him ahead or tied with Lula at 35-37 percent to 30-34 percent, with other contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema registering low single digits. Traders appear to price in limited time for rivals to close the gap before the first-round vote on October 4, though shifts in turnout, late campaign momentum among smaller candidates, or unexpected national developments could still alter the outcome in this closely watched southeastern state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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