Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, backed by multiple recent state polls showing him at 51-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-20s and all other candidates in single digits or lower. His position stems from longstanding regional support in the Northeast, reinforced by recent campaign activity including a September 4 visit highlighting completed water infrastructure projects tied to the São Francisco river transposition. Traders price this outcome at 96.8% amid consistent polling margins and incumbency advantages. Shifts could arise from major national economic changes, late-campaign consolidation among opposition candidates, or unexpected turnout variations, though current evidence shows no such movement within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 96.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.8%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Samara <1%
$14,241 Vol.
$14,241 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Samara
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 96.8%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.8%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Samara <1%
$14,241 Vol.
$14,241 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,960 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$817 Vol.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$702 Vol.
1%
Samara
$517 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$457 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$467 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$467 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$477 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$487 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$497 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$437 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$442 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$517 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, backed by multiple recent state polls showing him at 51-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-20s and all other candidates in single digits or lower. His position stems from longstanding regional support in the Northeast, reinforced by recent campaign activity including a September 4 visit highlighting completed water infrastructure projects tied to the São Francisco river transposition. Traders price this outcome at 96.8% amid consistent polling margins and incumbency advantages. Shifts could arise from major national economic changes, late-campaign consolidation among opposition candidates, or unexpected turnout variations, though current evidence shows no such movement within the resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$14,241End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, backed by multiple recent state polls showing him at 51-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-20s and all other candidates in single digits or lower. His position stems from longstanding regional support in the Northeast, reinforced by recent campaign activity including a September 4 visit highlighting completed water infrastructure projects tied to the São Francisco river transposition. Traders price this outcome at 96.8% amid consistent polling margins and incumbency advantages. Shifts could arise from major national economic changes, late-campaign consolidation among opposition candidates, or unexpected turnout variations, though current evidence shows no such movement within the resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$14,241End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, backed by multiple recent state polls showing him at 51-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-20s and all other candidates in single digits or lower. His position stems from longstanding regional support in the Northeast, reinforced by recent campaign activity including a September 4 visit highlighting completed water infrastructure projects tied to the São Francisco river transposition. Traders price this outcome at 96.8% amid consistent polling margins and incumbency advantages. Shifts could arise from major national economic changes, late-campaign consolidation among opposition candidates, or unexpected turnout variations, though current evidence shows no such movement within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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