Lula holds a clear lead in trader pricing for first place in Amazonas' first-round presidential vote due to consistent polling advantages in the state's interior, where he draws strong support from rural and traditional PT voters. Recent surveys from late August, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, showed Lula at 38-40% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 35-39%, with other candidates remaining in single digits. Lula's May visit to the region reinforced his position, while Flavio has faced headwinds from a financing scandal involving a jailed banker. The October 4 election date keeps the contest fluid, with Amazonas' split between Manaus and the interior continuing to shape outcomes amid low visibility for minor candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 72%
Flavio Bolsonaro 26%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$24,763 Vol.
$24,763 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
72%
Flavio Bolsonaro
26%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 72%
Flavio Bolsonaro 26%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$24,763 Vol.
$24,763 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,784 Vol.
72%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$8,425 Vol.
26%
Clariana Barao
$823 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$729 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$571 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$747 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$836 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$751 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$855 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$542 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$908 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$641 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a clear lead in trader pricing for first place in Amazonas' first-round presidential vote due to consistent polling advantages in the state's interior, where he draws strong support from rural and traditional PT voters. Recent surveys from late August, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, showed Lula at 38-40% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 35-39%, with other candidates remaining in single digits. Lula's May visit to the region reinforced his position, while Flavio has faced headwinds from a financing scandal involving a jailed banker. The October 4 election date keeps the contest fluid, with Amazonas' split between Manaus and the interior continuing to shape outcomes amid low visibility for minor candidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$24,763End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a clear lead in trader pricing for first place in Amazonas' first-round presidential vote due to consistent polling advantages in the state's interior, where he draws strong support from rural and traditional PT voters. Recent surveys from late August, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, showed Lula at 38-40% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 35-39%, with other candidates remaining in single digits. Lula's May visit to the region reinforced his position, while Flavio has faced headwinds from a financing scandal involving a jailed banker. The October 4 election date keeps the contest fluid, with Amazonas' split between Manaus and the interior continuing to shape outcomes amid low visibility for minor candidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$24,763End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a clear lead in trader pricing for first place in Amazonas' first-round presidential vote due to consistent polling advantages in the state's interior, where he draws strong support from rural and traditional PT voters. Recent surveys from late August, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, showed Lula at 38-40% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 35-39%, with other candidates remaining in single digits. Lula's May visit to the region reinforced his position, while Flavio has faced headwinds from a financing scandal involving a jailed banker. The October 4 election date keeps the contest fluid, with Amazonas' split between Manaus and the interior continuing to shape outcomes amid low visibility for minor candidates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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