Benedita da Silva (PT) holds the strongest position in trader consensus for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s 2026 Senate contest, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling from institutes such as Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data. Stimulated scenarios show her at 10-15% while the field for the second seat remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL), all within margins of error. High undecided and blank/null rates (often exceeding 50% combined) keep the race open, with no single candidate consolidating broad support ahead of the October vote. Fragmented right-leaning candidacies and the two-vote system further limit separation among contenders until later campaign developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBenedita da Silva 60%
Marcelo Crivella 22.1%
Carlos Jordy 10%
Pedro Paulo 2.6%
$44,629 Vol.
$44,629 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Benedita da Silva
60%
Marcelo Crivella
22%
Carlos Jordy
10%
Pedro Paulo
3%
Carlos Portinho
2%
Ó Clemente
<1%
André Monteiro
<1%
Helio Secco
<1%
Luciano Mattos
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
<1%
Marcos Dias
<1%
Michelly Xavier
<1%
Monica Benicio
<1%
Paula Falcão
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
<1%
Waguinho
<1%
Benedita da Silva 60%
Marcelo Crivella 22.1%
Carlos Jordy 10%
Pedro Paulo 2.6%
$44,629 Vol.
$44,629 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Benedita da Silva
$16,459 Vol.
60%
Marcelo Crivella
$4,065 Vol.
22%
Carlos Jordy
$9,832 Vol.
10%
Pedro Paulo
$2,432 Vol.
3%
Carlos Portinho
$3,168 Vol.
2%
Ó Clemente
$1,628 Vol.
<1%
André Monteiro
$816 Vol.
<1%
Helio Secco
$490 Vol.
<1%
Luciano Mattos
$375 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Eugenio
$763 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dias
$887 Vol.
<1%
Michelly Xavier
$671 Vol.
<1%
Monica Benicio
$843 Vol.
<1%
Paula Falcão
$845 Vol.
<1%
Vinicius Benevides
$649 Vol.
<1%
Waguinho
$707 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Benedita da Silva (PT) holds the strongest position in trader consensus for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s 2026 Senate contest, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling from institutes such as Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data. Stimulated scenarios show her at 10-15% while the field for the second seat remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL), all within margins of error. High undecided and blank/null rates (often exceeding 50% combined) keep the race open, with no single candidate consolidating broad support ahead of the October vote. Fragmented right-leaning candidacies and the two-vote system further limit separation among contenders until later campaign developments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Volume
$44,629End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Benedita da Silva (PT) holds the strongest position in trader consensus for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s 2026 Senate contest, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling from institutes such as Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data. Stimulated scenarios show her at 10-15% while the field for the second seat remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL), all within margins of error. High undecided and blank/null rates (often exceeding 50% combined) keep the race open, with no single candidate consolidating broad support ahead of the October vote. Fragmented right-leaning candidacies and the two-vote system further limit separation among contenders until later campaign developments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$44,629End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Benedita da Silva (PT) holds the strongest position in trader consensus for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s 2026 Senate contest, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling from institutes such as Quaest, Datafolha, and Real Time Big Data. Stimulated scenarios show her at 10-15% while the field for the second seat remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Jordy (PL), Carlos Portinho (PL), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL), all within margins of error. High undecided and blank/null rates (often exceeding 50% combined) keep the race open, with no single candidate consolidating broad support ahead of the October vote. Fragmented right-leaning candidacies and the two-vote system further limit separation among contenders until later campaign developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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