**PQ leads Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election in seat projections and implied probability because consistent polling shows the party holding a narrow but durable edge in popular support, concentrated among francophone voters, while the federalist vote splits between the CAQ and PLQ.** Recent polls from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis place the PQ in the 28–33% range, ahead of the CAQ at 20–28% and PLQ at 18–27%, with smaller parties trailing. Aggregators such as 338Canada currently project the PQ to win the most seats in roughly 84% of simulations, reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics that reward the party’s regional strength. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since its leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, drawing some support from older voters, but remains behind. The PLQ under Charles Milliard has lost ground after earlier gains. Upcoming debates and the final weeks of campaigning could still shift undecided voters, though the current trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained polling advantage and favorable seat math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 72%
CAQ 26%
PLQ 2.9%
PCQ <1%
$887,975 Vol.
$887,975 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
72%
CAQ
26%
PLQ
3%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 72%
CAQ 26%
PLQ 2.9%
PCQ <1%
$887,975 Vol.
$887,975 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$117,889 Vol.
72%
CAQ
$136,328 Vol.
26%
PLQ
$123,484 Vol.
3%
PCQ
$246,229 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**PQ leads Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election in seat projections and implied probability because consistent polling shows the party holding a narrow but durable edge in popular support, concentrated among francophone voters, while the federalist vote splits between the CAQ and PLQ.**
Recent polls from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis place the PQ in the 28–33% range, ahead of the CAQ at 20–28% and PLQ at 18–27%, with smaller parties trailing. Aggregators such as 338Canada currently project the PQ to win the most seats in roughly 84% of simulations, reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics that reward the party’s regional strength. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since its leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, drawing some support from older voters, but remains behind. The PLQ under Charles Milliard has lost ground after earlier gains. Upcoming debates and the final weeks of campaigning could still shift undecided voters, though the current trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained polling advantage and favorable seat math.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$887,975End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**PQ leads Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election in seat projections and implied probability because consistent polling shows the party holding a narrow but durable edge in popular support, concentrated among francophone voters, while the federalist vote splits between the CAQ and PLQ.**
Recent polls from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis place the PQ in the 28–33% range, ahead of the CAQ at 20–28% and PLQ at 18–27%, with smaller parties trailing. Aggregators such as 338Canada currently project the PQ to win the most seats in roughly 84% of simulations, reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics that reward the party’s regional strength. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since its leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, drawing some support from older voters, but remains behind. The PLQ under Charles Milliard has lost ground after earlier gains. Upcoming debates and the final weeks of campaigning could still shift undecided voters, though the current trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained polling advantage and favorable seat math.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$887,975End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**PQ leads Quebec’s October 5, 2026 general election in seat projections and implied probability because consistent polling shows the party holding a narrow but durable edge in popular support, concentrated among francophone voters, while the federalist vote splits between the CAQ and PLQ.** Recent polls from Léger, Pallas Data, and Synopsis place the PQ in the 28–33% range, ahead of the CAQ at 20–28% and PLQ at 18–27%, with smaller parties trailing. Aggregators such as 338Canada currently project the PQ to win the most seats in roughly 84% of simulations, reflecting first-past-the-post dynamics that reward the party’s regional strength. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since its leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, drawing some support from older voters, but remains behind. The PLQ under Charles Milliard has lost ground after earlier gains. Upcoming debates and the final weeks of campaigning could still shift undecided voters, though the current trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained polling advantage and favorable seat math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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