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icon for How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?

<45 92%

45–54 4.3%

65–74 2.6%

75–84 2.4%

Polymarket
NEW

<45 92%

45–54 4.3%

65–74 2.6%

75–84 2.4%

Polymarket
NEW

<45

$1,294 Vol.

92%

45–54

$183 Vol.

4%

55–64

$138 Vol.

2%

65–74

$158 Vol.

3%

75–84

$117 Vol.

2%

85–94

$292 Vol.

2%

95+

$295 Vol.

2%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.LDPR's entrenched position as one of Russia's four main systemic opposition parties, competing for nationalist and protest voters alongside the CPRF and New People within a United Russia-dominated system, drives the market's strong consensus toward fewer than 45 seats. Recent FOM and WCIOM polling through late August places LDPR support at roughly 8-12 percent, consistent with its 2021 result of 21-22 seats under the mixed electoral system. Party leader Leonid Slutsky's target of at least doubling representation through social and regional appeals faces structural limits from single-mandate outcomes favoring the ruling party and tight competition for the same voter base. Scenarios that could lift LDPR above 45 seats include deliberate Kremlin allocation of additional mandates or unusually strong single-district performances, though current trader pricing reflects the low probability of such shifts before the September 18-20 vote.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$2,477
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.LDPR's entrenched position as one of Russia's four main systemic opposition parties, competing for nationalist and protest voters alongside the CPRF and New People within a United Russia-dominated system, drives the market's strong consensus toward fewer than 45 seats. Recent FOM and WCIOM polling through late August places LDPR support at roughly 8-12 percent, consistent with its 2021 result of 21-22 seats under the mixed electoral system. Party leader Leonid Slutsky's target of at least doubling representation through social and regional appeals faces structural limits from single-mandate outcomes favoring the ruling party and tight competition for the same voter base. Scenarios that could lift LDPR above 45 seats include deliberate Kremlin allocation of additional mandates or unusually strong single-district performances, though current trader pricing reflects the low probability of such shifts before the September 18-20 vote.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$2,477
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<45" at 92%, followed by "45–54" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "<45" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "45–54" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.