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icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

<35 93%

35–44 5.7%

45–54 1.1%

75–84 1.1%

Polymarket

$12,245 Vol.

<35 93%

35–44 5.7%

45–54 1.1%

75–84 1.1%

Polymarket

$12,245 Vol.

<35

$6,532 Vol.

93%

35–44

$4,665 Vol.

6%

45–54

$86 Vol.

1%

55–64

$93 Vol.

1%

65–74

$148 Vol.

1%

75–84

$288 Vol.

1%

85+

$432 Vol.

1%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People (NL) currently holds 15 State Duma seats and faces structural barriers to significant expansion in the September 2026 election. The party registered a federal list of 299 candidates across 37 regional groups and nominated only 83 single-member district contenders, limiting its reach compared with larger systemic opposition parties. Recent polling from state-affiliated sources places its support in the 9–15% range, yet traders price the outcome below 35 seats at over 92% because single-member results historically favor United Russia, proportional allocation faces competition from LDPR and CPRF, and the managed electoral system constrains in-system opposition growth. A late candidate withdrawal in Krasnodar further highlights internal coordination challenges. Modest gains remain possible if urban turnout exceeds expectations or rival parties fragment, but these scenarios appear unlikely to overcome the established seat thresholds under current conditions.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$12,245
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.New People (NL) currently holds 15 State Duma seats and faces structural barriers to significant expansion in the September 2026 election. The party registered a federal list of 299 candidates across 37 regional groups and nominated only 83 single-member district contenders, limiting its reach compared with larger systemic opposition parties. Recent polling from state-affiliated sources places its support in the 9–15% range, yet traders price the outcome below 35 seats at over 92% because single-member results historically favor United Russia, proportional allocation faces competition from LDPR and CPRF, and the managed electoral system constrains in-system opposition growth. A late candidate withdrawal in Krasnodar further highlights internal coordination challenges. Modest gains remain possible if urban turnout exceeds expectations or rival parties fragment, but these scenarios appear unlikely to overcome the established seat thresholds under current conditions.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$12,245
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win fewer than 45 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<35" at 93%, followed by "35–44" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" has generated $12.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "<35" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35–44" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.