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icon for Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Nathalie Roy 69%

Jean-François Cloutier 33%

Mathieu Lavoie <1%

Ginette Langlois <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Nathalie Roy 69%

Jean-François Cloutier 33%

Mathieu Lavoie <1%

Ginette Langlois <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Nathalie Roy

Nathalie Roy

$1,342 Vol.

69%

icon for Jean-François Cloutier

Jean-François Cloutier

$537 Vol.

33%

icon for Mathieu Lavoie

Mathieu Lavoie

$479 Vol.

1%

icon for Ginette Langlois

Ginette Langlois

$734 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Nathalie Roy holds a clear lead in trader assessments for the Montarville seat in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, reflecting her status as the longtime incumbent for the Coalition avenir Québec. Roy, who has represented the riding since 2012 and previously served as National Assembly president, confirmed her candidacy in mid-August after the writs were dropped on August 27. Projections from early September place CAQ support in the mid-30s to low-40s percent range, ahead of the Parti québécois candidate Jean-François Cloutier. Other contenders, including Liberal Mathieu Lavoie and Québec solidaire’s Ginette Langlois, register far lower implied probabilities consistent with historical vote shares in this Montérégie riding. The nomination period closes September 17, leaving limited time for late developments to alter the consensus.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$3,091
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Nathalie Roy holds a clear lead in trader assessments for the Montarville seat in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, reflecting her status as the longtime incumbent for the Coalition avenir Québec. Roy, who has represented the riding since 2012 and previously served as National Assembly president, confirmed her candidacy in mid-August after the writs were dropped on August 27. Projections from early September place CAQ support in the mid-30s to low-40s percent range, ahead of the Parti québécois candidate Jean-François Cloutier. Other contenders, including Liberal Mathieu Lavoie and Québec solidaire’s Ginette Langlois, register far lower implied probabilities consistent with historical vote shares in this Montérégie riding. The nomination period closes September 17, leaving limited time for late developments to alter the consensus.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Montarville Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$3,091
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nathalie Roy" at 69%, followed by "Jean-François Cloutier" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Nathalie Roy" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jean-François Cloutier" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Montarville Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.