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icon for Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Alexandre Leduc 49%

Maude Brossard-Sabourin 36%

Elena Penta 3.3%

Béatrice Hodonou 1.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Alexandre Leduc 49%

Maude Brossard-Sabourin 36%

Elena Penta 3.3%

Béatrice Hodonou 1.0%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Alexandre Leduc

Alexandre Leduc

$720 Vol.

49%

icon for Maude Brossard-Sabourin

Maude Brossard-Sabourin

$540 Vol.

36%

icon for Elena Penta

Elena Penta

$228 Vol.

3%

icon for Béatrice Hodonou

Béatrice Hodonou

$648 Vol.

1%

icon for Janny Gaspard

Janny Gaspard

$347 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).In the Hochelaga-Maisonneuve riding, trader consensus reflects a tight contest between incumbent Alexandre Leduc of Québec solidaire and Parti Québécois challenger Maude Brossard-Sabourin ahead of the October 5 provincial election. Recent projections from early September show the two parties separated by just a few points in popular vote estimates, consistent with the riding's history of strong support for progressive and sovereigntist options. The writ was dropped in late August, with nominations closing mid-September and limited time for major shifts. Broader provincial polling volatility among QS, PQ, CAQ, and Liberals, combined with local factors such as turnout in Montreal's east-end districts and campaign messaging on social services and economic issues, sustains the narrow implied probabilities. Late-campaign developments including debates, riding-specific polling, or turnout patterns could widen the gap before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$2,482
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).In the Hochelaga-Maisonneuve riding, trader consensus reflects a tight contest between incumbent Alexandre Leduc of Québec solidaire and Parti Québécois challenger Maude Brossard-Sabourin ahead of the October 5 provincial election. Recent projections from early September show the two parties separated by just a few points in popular vote estimates, consistent with the riding's history of strong support for progressive and sovereigntist options. The writ was dropped in late August, with nominations closing mid-September and limited time for major shifts. Broader provincial polling volatility among QS, PQ, CAQ, and Liberals, combined with local factors such as turnout in Montreal's east-end districts and campaign messaging on social services and economic issues, sustains the narrow implied probabilities. Late-campaign developments including debates, riding-specific polling, or turnout patterns could widen the gap before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$2,482
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alexandre Leduc" at 49%, followed by "Maude Brossard-Sabourin" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Alexandre Leduc" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Maude Brossard-Sabourin" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.