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icon for Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Donald Martel 26%

Guillaume Langlois 22%

Sophie Martinbeault 3.2%

Jérôme Gagnon 0

Polymarket
NEW

Donald Martel 26%

Guillaume Langlois 22%

Sophie Martinbeault 3.2%

Jérôme Gagnon 0

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Donald Martel

Donald Martel

$931 Vol.

28%

icon for Guillaume Langlois

Guillaume Langlois

$45 Vol.

22%

icon for Sophie Martinbeault

Sophie Martinbeault

$678 Vol.

3%

icon for Jérôme Gagnon

Jérôme Gagnon

$12 Vol.

36%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).In the Nicolet-Bécancour riding, trader sentiment reflects a close three-way contest among Parti Québécois candidate Jérôme Gagnon, Parti conservateur du Québec nominee Guillaume Langlois, and incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA Donald Martel ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election. Gagnon's May 2026 nomination win and local roots in economic development have positioned the PQ to capitalize on province-wide momentum, while Langlois's June confirmation as PCQ candidate leverages strong 2022 performance in the riding. Martel's ministerial role and long tenure since 2012 provide incumbency advantages amid CAQ efforts to hold rural seats. Aggregators show volatile vote projections with PQ, PCQ, and CAQ clustered in the mid-20s to mid-30s percent range, keeping implied probabilities tight. Late-campaign polling shifts, turnout among francophone voters, or targeted regional messaging on agriculture and autonomy could widen gaps before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,667
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).In the Nicolet-Bécancour riding, trader sentiment reflects a close three-way contest among Parti Québécois candidate Jérôme Gagnon, Parti conservateur du Québec nominee Guillaume Langlois, and incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec MNA Donald Martel ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election. Gagnon's May 2026 nomination win and local roots in economic development have positioned the PQ to capitalize on province-wide momentum, while Langlois's June confirmation as PCQ candidate leverages strong 2022 performance in the riding. Martel's ministerial role and long tenure since 2012 provide incumbency advantages amid CAQ efforts to hold rural seats. Aggregators show volatile vote projections with PQ, PCQ, and CAQ clustered in the mid-20s to mid-30s percent range, keeping implied probabilities tight. Late-campaign polling shifts, turnout among francophone voters, or targeted regional messaging on agriculture and autonomy could widen gaps before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,667
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jérôme Gagnon" at 36%, followed by "Donald Martel" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Jérôme Gagnon" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donald Martel" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nicolet-Bécancour Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.