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icon for Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Andrés Fontecilla 70%

Randy Legault-Rankin 26%

Emil Parfyonov 2.5%

Derek Lefebvre 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Andrés Fontecilla 70%

Randy Legault-Rankin 26%

Emil Parfyonov 2.5%

Derek Lefebvre 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Andrés Fontecilla

Andrés Fontecilla

$567 Vol.

70%

icon for Randy Legault-Rankin

Randy Legault-Rankin

$1,085 Vol.

26%

icon for Emil Parfyonov

Emil Parfyonov

$283 Vol.

2%

icon for Derek Lefebvre

Derek Lefebvre

$459 Vol.

1%

icon for Kelly Lazo de la Vega

Kelly Lazo de la Vega

$741 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**Andrés Fontecilla leads trader consensus in the Laurier-Dorion riding at 69.5% implied probability, reflecting his status as the incumbent Québec solidaire MNA since 2018 and the riding’s consistent QS lean.** Projections from models updated in early September 2026 place QS support in the mid-to-high 30s to low 40s percent range, ahead of the Liberal candidate Randy Legault-Rankin (around 26-34%) and trailing parties including the Parti Québécois, CAQ, and Conservatives. Fontecilla’s unanimous renomination by local QS members in May 2026 and the riding’s electoral history—QS captured 48.8% in 2022—anchor the current positioning ahead of the October 5 general election. Lower probabilities for other named candidates align with limited polling movement or profile in this Montreal district following the August 27 writ. Nomination deadlines close September 17, leaving little time for late shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$3,134
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**Andrés Fontecilla leads trader consensus in the Laurier-Dorion riding at 69.5% implied probability, reflecting his status as the incumbent Québec solidaire MNA since 2018 and the riding’s consistent QS lean.** Projections from models updated in early September 2026 place QS support in the mid-to-high 30s to low 40s percent range, ahead of the Liberal candidate Randy Legault-Rankin (around 26-34%) and trailing parties including the Parti Québécois, CAQ, and Conservatives. Fontecilla’s unanimous renomination by local QS members in May 2026 and the riding’s electoral history—QS captured 48.8% in 2022—anchor the current positioning ahead of the October 5 general election. Lower probabilities for other named candidates align with limited polling movement or profile in this Montreal district following the August 27 writ. Nomination deadlines close September 17, leaving little time for late shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$3,134
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Andrés Fontecilla" at 70%, followed by "Randy Legault-Rankin" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Andrés Fontecilla" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Randy Legault-Rankin" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.