**Marc-Antoine Bernier leads the market for the Louis-Hébert riding in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election at 62.5 percent, reflecting the Coalition Avenir Québec’s established position in this Capitale-Nationale seat.** The riding was held by outgoing CAQ MNA Geneviève Guilbault until her retirement announcement earlier in 2026; Bernier, a former TVA Québec newsroom manager completing an MBA at Université Laval, was named the CAQ candidate in late August 2026 as the party finalized its Capitale-Nationale slate shortly before the writs were issued on August 27. Chloé Fauchon of the Parti Québécois sits at 19.5 percent after her March 2026 announcement; she brings a background as a public and environmental lawyer focused on housing, education, and francisation pressures. Marcos Archambault (Conservateur du Québec) at 8.5 percent, Richard Bélanger (Libéral) at 0.8 percent, and Anne-Sophie Roy (Québec solidaire) at 4.5 percent complete the main field. Multiple other named or placeholder options trade near 50 percent, indicating limited trader conviction on lesser-known contenders. Projections from early September continue to show a CAQ advantage in the riding consistent with its 2022 result, though the overall provincial race remains competitive. The short campaign window leaves room for late shifts driven by party messaging on cost of living, infrastructure, and regional priorities in the Quebec City area.