Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 66%

Guy Veillette 30%

Laurent Bélisle <1%

Charles Paquin <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 66%

Guy Veillette 30%

Laurent Bélisle <1%

Charles Paquin <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

Élodie Murphy-Gauthier

$952 Vol.

66%

icon for Guy Veillette

Guy Veillette

$936 Vol.

30%

icon for Laurent Bélisle

Laurent Bélisle

$232 Vol.

1%

icon for Charles Paquin

Charles Paquin

$1,083 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Élodie Murphy-Gauthier leads trader pricing in the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice race as the Parti Québécois candidate, reflecting the party's competitive or leading position in recent riding-level projections amid broader provincial trends favoring the PQ over the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec. Guy Veillette, the CAQ nominee and former journalist serving as political attaché to the retiring MNA Marie-Louise Tardif, trails as the party seeks to defend a seat held since 2018 amid shifting voter preferences. Minor candidates including Charles Paquin of the Conservative Party and Laurent Bélisle of the Liberals register negligible implied probabilities consistent with historical support levels in the riding. The October 5 election date and ongoing nomination period through mid-September leave room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to influence outcomes.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$3,203
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Élodie Murphy-Gauthier leads trader pricing in the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice race as the Parti Québécois candidate, reflecting the party's competitive or leading position in recent riding-level projections amid broader provincial trends favoring the PQ over the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec. Guy Veillette, the CAQ nominee and former journalist serving as political attaché to the retiring MNA Marie-Louise Tardif, trails as the party seeks to defend a seat held since 2018 amid shifting voter preferences. Minor candidates including Charles Paquin of the Conservative Party and Laurent Bélisle of the Liberals register negligible implied probabilities consistent with historical support levels in the riding. The October 5 election date and ongoing nomination period through mid-September leave room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to influence outcomes.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$3,203
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise win the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise win the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election?

40%
icon for Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Marc-Antoine Bernier win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?

71%
icon for Will Claude Reid win the next Beauharnois Quebec National Assembly election?

Will Claude Reid win the next Beauharnois Quebec National Assembly election?

64%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Élodie Murphy-Gauthier" at 66%, followed by "Guy Veillette" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Élodie Murphy-Gauthier" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Guy Veillette" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.