The open La Prairie seat, vacated by longtime CAQ MNA Christian Dubé, has produced a tight early contest between CAQ candidate Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise and PQ nominee Frédéric Côté in the Montérégie riding. Traders assign comparable implied probabilities to the two amid the broader provincial campaign launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, where regional polling shows CAQ retaining strength in former strongholds while PQ gains overall. Local factors such as candidate profiles, turnout patterns in suburban and francophone areas, and any late shifts in provincial momentum could widen the gap before nomination deadlines close on September 17. Other contenders including Liberal Sonia Ziadé and QS's Francine van Winden trail with limited current market support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLa Prairie Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
La Prairie Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Frédéric Côté 26%
Sonia Ziadé 7%
Francine van Winden 1.1%
Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise 0
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Frédéric Côté
26%
Sonia Ziadé
7%
Francine van Winden
1%
Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise
42%
Frédéric Côté 26%
Sonia Ziadé 7%
Francine van Winden 1.1%
Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise 0
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Frédéric Côté
$600 Vol.
26%
Sonia Ziadé
$390 Vol.
7%
Francine van Winden
$648 Vol.
1%
Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise
$10 Vol.
42%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The open La Prairie seat, vacated by longtime CAQ MNA Christian Dubé, has produced a tight early contest between CAQ candidate Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise and PQ nominee Frédéric Côté in the Montérégie riding. Traders assign comparable implied probabilities to the two amid the broader provincial campaign launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, where regional polling shows CAQ retaining strength in former strongholds while PQ gains overall. Local factors such as candidate profiles, turnout patterns in suburban and francophone areas, and any late shifts in provincial momentum could widen the gap before nomination deadlines close on September 17. Other contenders including Liberal Sonia Ziadé and QS's Francine van Winden trail with limited current market support.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,649End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The open La Prairie seat, vacated by longtime CAQ MNA Christian Dubé, has produced a tight early contest between CAQ candidate Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise and PQ nominee Frédéric Côté in the Montérégie riding. Traders assign comparable implied probabilities to the two amid the broader provincial campaign launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, where regional polling shows CAQ retaining strength in former strongholds while PQ gains overall. Local factors such as candidate profiles, turnout patterns in suburban and francophone areas, and any late shifts in provincial momentum could widen the gap before nomination deadlines close on September 17. Other contenders including Liberal Sonia Ziadé and QS's Francine van Winden trail with limited current market support.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,649End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The open La Prairie seat, vacated by longtime CAQ MNA Christian Dubé, has produced a tight early contest between CAQ candidate Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise and PQ nominee Frédéric Côté in the Montérégie riding. Traders assign comparable implied probabilities to the two amid the broader provincial campaign launched August 27 for the October 5 vote, where regional polling shows CAQ retaining strength in former strongholds while PQ gains overall. Local factors such as candidate profiles, turnout patterns in suburban and francophone areas, and any late shifts in provincial momentum could widen the gap before nomination deadlines close on September 17. Other contenders including Liberal Sonia Ziadé and QS's Francine van Winden trail with limited current market support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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